Arosa
vs
Pontevedra
Garuda Lions Prediction: Pontevedra
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Arosa vs Pontevedra overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Arosa vs Pontevedra
| Probability | Arosa | Draw | Pontevedra |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.6% | 26.0% | 51.5% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 22.6% | 26.0% | 51.5% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Pontevedra
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 1.09.
Arosa vs Pontevedra match preview
Arosa faces Pontevedra in the Copa del Rey with a kickoff scheduled for October 27, 2026. According to our model, Arosa has a 23% chance of winning, while Pontevedra is favored with a 51% probability. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 1-2, occurring at a rate of 10%. The expected goals for Arosa stand at 1.09, compared to Pontevedra's 1.73.
Recent form shows Pontevedra with a record of L-D-L-W-W-W, indicating a mixed performance leading into this match. Our model suggests a 54% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this matchup is rated as C, reflecting a moderate level of certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Arosa and Pontevedra expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.82
Arosa and Pontevedra attack and defence ratings
Arosa
Pontevedra
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 128 fixtures
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- Don Benito vs Extremadura 1924
- Atlético Paso vs Cordoba — team news & stats
- Tudelano v Zaragoza — match page
- Recreativo Huelva vs Rayo Vallecano — team news & stats
- Manacor v Villarreal — match page
- Alcazar vs Malaga — team news & stats
Arosa vs Pontevedra markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Pontevedra | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.7% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.5% | 2.06 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Arosa | 22.6% |
| Draw | 26.0% | |
| Pontevedra | 51.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.7% |
| No | 44.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 48.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 77.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Pontevedra win | 28.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.5% | |
| Loss | 48.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | |
| 0-1 | 9.2% |
Arosa vs Pontevedra stats
Arosa and Pontevedra recent form
| Arosa | no matches on record |
| Pontevedra |
LDLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.