Deportiva Minera
vs
FC Cartagena
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Cartagena
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 1.06.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Deportiva Minera vs FC Cartagena overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Deportiva Minera vs FC Cartagena
| Probability | Deportiva Minera | Draw | FC Cartagena |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18.8% | 23.5% | 57.7% |
| Market | 29.2% | 30.4% | 40.4% |
| Final | 26.6% | 28.7% | 44.7% |
| Edge | -2.6% | -1.7% | +4.3% |
Why FC Cartagena
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 1.06.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 5 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices FC Cartagena below our published probability: +4.3 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.35, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +5.1% per unit staked (our 44.7% × 2.35 − 1).
Deportiva Minera vs FC Cartagena match preview
Deportiva Minera faces FC Cartagena in the Copa del Rey with a kickoff scheduled for November 18, 2026. According to our model, Deportiva Minera has a 27% chance of winning, while FC Cartagena is favored at 45%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 10%. Both teams are expected to contribute to the score, with a 57% probability of both teams scoring and a 59% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match.
In terms of expected goals, Deportiva Minera is projected to score 1.06, whereas FC Cartagena is forecasted to net 1.98. Recent form shows Deportiva Minera with a record of L-D-W, while FC Cartagena has performed better with L-W-L-W-W. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate confidence in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Deportiva Minera and FC Cartagena expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.04
Deportiva Minera and FC Cartagena attack and defence ratings
Deportiva Minera
FC Cartagena
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 128 fixtures
Deportiva Minera vs FC Cartagena markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Cartagena | 44.7% | 2.24 | +4.3% | 2.35 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.6% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.4% | 1.74 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 73.4% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.3% | 2.36 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Deportiva Minera | 26.6% |
| Draw | 28.7% | |
| FC Cartagena | 44.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 57.4% |
| No | 42.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Cartagena win | 35.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 42.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.0% |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | |
| 0-2 | 9.4% |
Deportiva Minera vs FC Cartagena stats
Deportiva Minera and FC Cartagena recent form
| Deportiva Minera |
LDW |
| FC Cartagena |
LWLWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 3 completed matches.
Deportiva Minera vs FC Cartagena head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Deportiva Minera vs FC Cartagena odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 29.8%, draw 29.1%, away 41.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.15 | 3.00 | 2.27 |
| Bet365 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.13 | 2.25 |
| Betano | 3.10 | 3.20 | 2.20 |
| Betfair | 3.60 | 3.50 | 2.05 |
| Dafabet | 3.30 | 3.45 | 2.25 |
| Marathonbet | 2.99 | 3.18 | 2.35 |
| Pinnacle | 2.89 | 2.90 | 2.34 |
| William Hill | 3.10 | 3.00 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .