Portugalete
vs
Real Unión
Garuda Lions Prediction: Real Unión
0 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 0.99.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Portugalete vs Real Unión overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Portugalete vs Real Unión
| Probability | Portugalete | Draw | Real Unión |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 16.6% | 22.7% | 60.7% |
| Market | 30.5% | 29.1% | 40.4% |
| Final | 27.0% | 27.5% | 45.5% |
| Edge | -3.5% | -1.6% | +5.1% |
Why Real Unión
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.04 vs 0.99.
- The market prices Real Unión below our published probability: +5.1 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.35, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +7.0% per unit staked (our 45.5% × 2.35 − 1).
Portugalete vs Real Unión match preview
Portugalete faces Real Unión in the Copa del Rey, with the match expected to be competitive. According to our model, Portugalete has a 27% chance of winning, while Real Unión stands at 46%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-2 in favor of Real Unión, with expected goals of 0.99 for Portugalete and 2.04 for Real Unión.
Recent form shows Portugalete with a win followed by a loss, while Real Unión's recent performance is not available. The head-to-head record in their last three encounters indicates a balanced matchup, with each team securing one win and one draw. Additionally, our model suggests a 58% probability of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Portugalete and Real Unión expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.03
Portugalete and Real Unión attack and defence ratings
Portugalete
Real Unión
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 128 fixtures
Portugalete vs Real Unión markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Real Unión | 45.5% | 2.20 | +5.1% | 2.35 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.4% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.7% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.3% | 2.55 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Portugalete | 27.0% |
| Draw | 27.5% | |
| Real Unión | 45.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.7% |
| No | 44.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 54.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 73.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Real Unión win | 37.9% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.8% | |
| Loss | 39.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.7% |
| 0-2 | 10.1% | |
| 1-2 | 10.0% |
Portugalete vs Real Unión stats
Portugalete and Real Unión recent form
| Portugalete |
LW |
| Real Unión |
no matches on record |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.
Portugalete vs Real Unión head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-08-09 | Real Unión | Portugalete | Friendlies Clubs | 1-1 |
| 2021-03-21 | Portugalete | Real Unión | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 | 2-0 |
| 2020-12-20 | Real Unión | Portugalete | Primera División RFEF - Group 2 | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Portugalete vs Real Unión odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 30.5%, draw 29.1%, away 40.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.06 | 3.20 | 2.32 |
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.20 | 2.30 |
| BetVictor | 3.00 | 3.13 | 2.25 |
| Betano | 3.05 | 3.15 | 2.27 |
| Betfair | 3.10 | 3.25 | 2.30 |
| Dafabet | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.35 |
| Marathonbet | 3.05 | 3.20 | 2.30 |
| Pinnacle | 2.97 | 3.00 | 2.23 |
| William Hill | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.30 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
25 snapshots recorded, from .