Alcoyano
vs
Mallorca
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mallorca
0 – 1 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 0.73.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Mallorca is the favourite, not a value bet.
Alcoyano vs Mallorca overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Alcoyano vs Mallorca
| Probability | Alcoyano | Draw | Mallorca |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 14.4% | 25.4% | 60.2% |
| Market | 15.5% | 24.5% | 60.0% |
| Final | 15.2% | 24.7% | 60.1% |
| Edge | -0.3% | +0.2% | +0.0% |
Why Mallorca
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 0.73.
Best available price on the pick: 1.57, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.7% per unit staked (our 60.1% × 1.57 − 1).
Alcoyano vs Mallorca match preview
Alcoyano faces Mallorca in the Copa del Rey with a predicted probability of 15% for Alcoyano to win, 25% for a draw, and 60% for Mallorca to secure victory. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with a 14% probability. Expected goals suggest Alcoyano will generate 0.73, while Mallorca is forecasted to achieve 1.73.
Mallorca's recent form shows a mix of results with two draws, a win, and a loss in their last five matches. In contrast, Alcoyano's recent performance is not available. The model indicates a 45% chance for over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance for both teams to score, reflecting a competitive matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Alcoyano and Mallorca expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.46
Alcoyano and Mallorca attack and defence ratings
Alcoyano
Mallorca
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 128 fixtures
Before and after this match
Alcoyano vs Mallorca markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mallorca | 60.1% | 1.67 | +0.0% | 1.57 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.3% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 84.8% | 1.18 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 39.8% | 2.51 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Alcoyano | 15.2% |
| Draw | 24.7% | |
| Mallorca | 60.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 43.7% |
| No | 56.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 39.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 84.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mallorca win | 35.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.2% | |
| Loss | 39.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 13.7% |
| 0-2 | 12.8% | |
| 1-1 | 11.9% |
Alcoyano vs Mallorca stats
Alcoyano and Mallorca recent form
| Alcoyano |
no matches on record |
| Mallorca |
WDDWDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Alcoyano vs Mallorca head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Alcoyano vs Mallorca odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 15.5%, draw 24.5%, away 60.0%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 6.12 | 3.82 | 1.55 |
| Bet365 | 6.00 | 4.00 | 1.55 |
| BetVictor | 6.00 | 3.75 | 1.50 |
| Betano | 5.60 | 3.80 | 1.55 |
| Betfair | 6.50 | 4.00 | 1.53 |
| Dafabet | 6.20 | 4.20 | 1.56 |
| Marathonbet | 5.70 | 3.80 | 1.57 |
| Pinnacle | 5.56 | 3.54 | 1.52 |
| William Hill | 6.00 | 3.70 | 1.53 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
28 snapshots recorded, from .