Reddis
vs
Barakaldo
Garuda Lions Prediction: Barakaldo
0 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 0.97.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Reddis vs Barakaldo overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Reddis vs Barakaldo
| Probability | Reddis | Draw | Barakaldo |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 15.2% | 21.8% | 63.0% |
| Market | 27.8% | 28.0% | 44.2% |
| Final | 24.6% | 26.5% | 48.9% |
| Edge | -3.1% | -1.6% | +4.7% |
Why Barakaldo
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.13 vs 0.97.
- Better recent form: 1 wins in the last 2 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Barakaldo below our published probability: +4.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.20, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +7.6% per unit staked (our 48.9% × 2.20 − 1).
Reddis vs Barakaldo match preview
In the upcoming Copa del Rey match, Reddis faces Barakaldo with a probability of 25% for a Reddis win, 26% for a draw, and 49% for a Barakaldo victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 0-2, occurring at a rate of 10%. The expected goals are 0.97 for Reddis and 2.13 for Barakaldo, indicating a significant disparity in offensive output.
Recent form shows Reddis with a loss followed by a draw, while Barakaldo comes off a loss followed by a win. Our model suggests a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% probability that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this match is C, reflecting moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Reddis and Barakaldo expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.09
Reddis and Barakaldo attack and defence ratings
Reddis
Barakaldo
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 128 fixtures
Reddis vs Barakaldo markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Barakaldo | 48.9% | 2.05 | +4.7% | 2.20 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.7% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 75.4% | 1.33 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Barakaldo win | 40.3% | 2.48 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Reddis | 24.6% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Barakaldo | 48.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 59.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 40.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.5% |
| No | 44.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Barakaldo win | 40.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.7% | |
| Loss | 37.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.3% |
| 0-2 | 10.2% | |
| 1-2 | 9.9% |
Reddis vs Barakaldo stats
Reddis and Barakaldo recent form
| Reddis |
LD |
| Barakaldo |
LW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 2 completed matches.
Reddis vs Barakaldo head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Reddis vs Barakaldo odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 27.7%, draw 28.1%, away 44.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.42 | 3.32 | 2.10 |
| Bet365 | 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.10 | 2.10 |
| Betano | 3.35 | 3.25 | 2.07 |
| Betfair | 3.20 | 3.30 | 2.20 |
| Dafabet | 3.50 | 3.45 | 2.15 |
| Marathonbet | 3.34 | 3.36 | 2.09 |
| Pinnacle | 3.15 | 3.14 | 1.96 |
| William Hill | 3.70 | 3.30 | 1.95 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
24 snapshots recorded, from .