Gimnástica Torrelavega
vs
UD Ourense
Garuda Lions Prediction: UD Ourense
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
Gimnástica Torrelavega vs UD Ourense overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Gimnástica Torrelavega vs UD Ourense
| Probability | Gimnástica Torrelavega | Draw | UD Ourense |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.5% | 25.1% | 50.4% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 24.5% | 25.1% | 50.4% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why UD Ourense
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.82 vs 1.22.
Gimnástica Torrelavega vs UD Ourense match preview
In the upcoming Copa del Rey match, Gimnástica Torrelavega faces UD Ourense, with kickoff scheduled for October 28, 2026. According to our model, Gimnástica Torrelavega has a 24% chance of winning, while UD Ourense is favored with a 50% probability. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, occurring at a rate of 10%. The expected goals for Gimnástica Torrelavega stand at 1.22, compared to 1.82 for UD Ourense.
The analysis suggests a 58% likelihood of over 2.5 goals, and there is a 60% chance that both teams will score. Recent form indicates that UD Ourense's last match ended in a draw, while Gimnástica Torrelavega's recent performance remains unassessed. The overall confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Gimnástica Torrelavega and UD Ourense expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.04
Gimnástica Torrelavega and UD Ourense attack and defence ratings
Gimnástica Torrelavega
UD Ourense
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Round of 128 fixtures
Gimnástica Torrelavega vs UD Ourense markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | UD Ourense | 50.4% | 1.98 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.0% | 1.67 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 75.5% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.6% | 2.02 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gimnástica Torrelavega | 24.5% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| UD Ourense | 50.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 58.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 41.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 60.0% |
| No | 40.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 49.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | UD Ourense win | 28.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.7% | |
| Loss | 49.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.7% | |
| 0-2 | 7.9% |
Gimnástica Torrelavega vs UD Ourense stats
Gimnástica Torrelavega and UD Ourense recent form
| Gimnástica Torrelavega | no matches on record |
| UD Ourense |
D |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 1 completed matches.