IF Elfsborg
vs
Malmo FF
Garuda Lions Prediction: IF Elfsborg
1 – 0 Predicted score · 10% model probability
IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF overview
Garuda Lions analysis: IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF
| Probability | IF Elfsborg | Draw | Malmo FF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.9% | 28.3% | 25.8% |
| Market | 41.3% | 26.6% | 32.1% |
| Final | 42.4% | 27.1% | 30.5% |
| Edge | +4.6% | +1.7% | -6.3% |
Why IF Elfsborg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.50 vs 1.07.
- The market prices IF Elfsborg below the model: +4.6 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.27, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF match preview
IF Elfsborg hosts Malmo FF in a closely contested Allsvenskan matchup. According to our model, IF Elfsborg has a 48% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 29% and Malmo FF at 23%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of IF Elfsborg, with a 12% probability. Both teams have shown solid recent form, with IF Elfsborg recording three wins in their last five matches, and Malmo FF winning four out of their last five.
The expected goals suggest a competitive encounter, with IF Elfsborg at 1.48 and Malmo FF at 0.95. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals, and both teams are expected to score at a rate of 49%. The recent head-to-head record indicates a balanced rivalry, with each team winning once and one match ending in a draw.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
IF Elfsborg and Malmo FF expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.57
IF Elfsborg and Malmo FF attack and defence ratings
IF Elfsborg
Malmo FF
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
Before and after this match
IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | IF Elfsborg | 42.4% | 2.36 | +4.6% | 2.27 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 52.6% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.2% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.9% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 54.1% | 1.85 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | IF Elfsborg | 42.4% |
| Draw | 27.1% | |
| Malmo FF | 30.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 47.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 52.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.2% |
| No | 47.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 57.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | IF Elfsborg win | 23.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.3% | |
| Loss | 54.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.5% |
| 1-0 | 10.3% | |
| 2-1 | 9.2% |
IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF stats
IF Elfsborg and Malmo FF recent form
| IF Elfsborg |
DWWWLW |
| Malmo FF |
WLWDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
IF Elfsborg and Malmo FF season so far
IF Elfsborg record
- They have won 11 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Malmo FF record
- They have won 11 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.7 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-26 | Malmo FF | IF Elfsborg | Allsvenskan | 1-2 |
| 2025-09-14 | IF Elfsborg | Malmo FF | Allsvenskan | 2-2 |
| 2025-04-07 | Malmo FF | IF Elfsborg | Allsvenskan | 2-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
IF Elfsborg vs Malmo FF odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 41.3%, draw 26.6%, away 32.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.27 | 3.50 | 2.91 |
| Marathonbet | 2.25 | 3.50 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
3 snapshots recorded, from .