AIK Stockholm
vs
IF Elfsborg
Garuda Lions Prediction: IF Elfsborg
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 1.30.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg
| Probability | AIK Stockholm | Draw | IF Elfsborg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 24.0% | 23.7% | 52.3% |
| Market | 31.0% | 26.6% | 42.3% |
| Final | 29.3% | 25.9% | 44.8% |
| Edge | -1.8% | -0.7% | +2.5% |
Why IF Elfsborg
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.98 vs 1.30.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices IF Elfsborg below our published probability: +2.5 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.26, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.3% per unit staked (our 44.8% × 2.26 − 1).
AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg match preview
AIK Stockholm faces IF Elfsborg in an Allsvenskan clash on October 27, 2026. According to our model, AIK Stockholm has a 23% probability of winning, while IF Elfsborg is favored at 56%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, with a 9% likelihood. The expected goals for AIK Stockholm stand at 1.45, compared to 2.29 for IF Elfsborg.
Recent form shows AIK Stockholm struggling with a sequence of draws and losses, recording D-L-L-D-L-D. In contrast, IF Elfsborg has displayed stronger performance with a record of D-W-W-W-L-W. Additionally, there is a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals, and both teams are expected to score with a 70% probability. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg team news
AIK Stockholm news
- A. Helm — knee injury
- A. Redkin — knee injury
- D. Besirovic — thigh injury
- I. Cisse — ankle injury
- K. Filling — knee injury
- S. Papagiannopoulos — knee injury
IF Elfsborg news
- L. Hagg — inactive
- V. Elfstrom — inactive
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.27
AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg attack and defence ratings
AIK Stockholm
IF Elfsborg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
Before and after this match
AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | IF Elfsborg | 44.8% | 2.23 | +2.5% | 2.26 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.5% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.6% | 1.57 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.1% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 47.7% | 2.10 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | AIK Stockholm | 29.3% |
| Draw | 25.9% | |
| IF Elfsborg | 44.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 63.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 36.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 63.6% |
| No | 36.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | IF Elfsborg win | 31.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.2% | |
| Loss | 47.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 10.7% |
| 1-2 | 9.6% | |
| 0-2 | 7.4% |
AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg stats
AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg recent form
| AIK Stockholm |
WDLLDL |
| IF Elfsborg |
DDWWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
AIK Stockholm and IF Elfsborg season so far
AIK Stockholm record
- They have won 10 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
IF Elfsborg record
- They have won 11 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | IF Elfsborg | AIK Stockholm | Allsvenskan | 1-1 |
| 2026-03-21 | IF Elfsborg | AIK Stockholm | Friendlies Clubs | 3-2 |
| 2025-11-02 | IF Elfsborg | AIK Stockholm | Allsvenskan | 0-3 |
| 2025-04-27 | AIK Stockholm | IF Elfsborg | Allsvenskan | 2-0 |
| 2024-10-27 | AIK Stockholm | IF Elfsborg | Allsvenskan | 2-1 |
| 2024-05-15 | IF Elfsborg | AIK Stockholm | Allsvenskan | 6-1 |
| 2023-10-23 | IF Elfsborg | AIK Stockholm | Allsvenskan | 3-0 |
| 2023-06-11 | AIK Stockholm | IF Elfsborg | Allsvenskan | 1-2 |
| 2022-11-06 | AIK Stockholm | IF Elfsborg | Allsvenskan | 0-1 |
| 2022-07-10 | IF Elfsborg | AIK Stockholm | Allsvenskan | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.0%, draw 26.6%, away 42.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.01 | 3.58 | 2.18 |
| Bet365 | 2.90 | 3.50 | 2.20 |
| BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| Betano | 3.05 | 3.50 | 2.20 |
| Betfair | 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.15 |
| Dafabet | 3.00 | 3.65 | 2.26 |
| Marathonbet | 3.00 | 3.58 | 2.16 |
| Pinnacle | 3.04 | 3.57 | 2.22 |
| SBO | 2.73 | 3.17 | 2.13 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .