Halmstad
vs
Malmo FF
Garuda Lions Prediction: Malmo FF
0 – 1 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.25 vs 0.71.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Malmo FF is the favourite, not a value bet.
Halmstad vs Malmo FF overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Halmstad vs Malmo FF
| Probability | Halmstad | Draw | Malmo FF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.0% | 32.1% | 47.9% |
| Market | 20.5% | 23.3% | 56.2% |
| Final | 20.4% | 25.5% | 54.1% |
| Edge | -0.1% | +2.2% | -2.1% |
Why Malmo FF
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.25 vs 0.71.
Best available price on the pick: 1.71, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -7.5% per unit staked (our 54.1% × 1.71 − 1).
Halmstad vs Malmo FF match preview
Halmstad faces Malmo FF in an Allsvenskan clash on October 28, 2026. The probabilities indicate a strong advantage for Malmo FF, with a 55% chance of victory compared to Halmstad's 16%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring at a 16% probability, suggesting a low-scoring match. Halmstad has struggled recently, recording two losses followed by a win, while Malmo FF shows better form with two wins and a draw in their last five matches.
In terms of expected goals, Halmstad is projected to score 0.67, while Malmo FF is expected to net 1.44. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 35%, and both teams scoring is estimated at 38%. Historically, Malmo FF has dominated this matchup, winning all four of the last encounters against Halmstad.
Halmstad and Malmo FF team news
Halmstad news
Malmo FF news
- I. Assibu — inactive
- K. Busuladzic — injury
- N. John — inactive
- O. Sjostrand — knee injury
- P. Jansson — knee injury
- W. Kamanzi — muscle injury
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Halmstad and Malmo FF expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.96
Halmstad and Malmo FF attack and defence ratings
Halmstad
Malmo FF
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
Before and after this match
Halmstad vs Malmo FF markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Malmo FF | 54.1% | 1.85 | -2.1% | 1.71 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 68.7% | 1.46 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 62.4% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 79.6% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 52.1% | 1.92 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Halmstad | 20.4% |
| Draw | 25.5% | |
| Malmo FF | 54.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 31.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 68.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 37.6% |
| No | 62.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 45.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 79.6% | |
| Handicap -1 | Malmo FF win | 22.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.4% | |
| Loss | 52.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 16.3% |
| 0-0 | 15.3% | |
| 1-1 | 13.8% |
Halmstad vs Malmo FF stats
Halmstad and Malmo FF recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Halmstad and Malmo FF season so far
Halmstad record
- They have won 4 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 25 matches.
Malmo FF record
- They have won 11 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Halmstad vs Malmo FF head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Malmo FF | Halmstad | Allsvenskan | 5-2 |
| 2026-03-08 | Malmo FF | Halmstad | Svenska Cupen | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-16 | Halmstad | Malmo FF | Allsvenskan | 0-4 |
| 2025-05-18 | Malmo FF | Halmstad | Allsvenskan | 3-0 |
| 2024-08-10 | Halmstad | Malmo FF | Allsvenskan | 0-1 |
| 2024-07-07 | Malmo FF | Halmstad | Allsvenskan | 5-1 |
| 2024-03-16 | Halmstad | Malmo FF | Svenska Cupen | 0-4 |
| 2023-08-07 | Malmo FF | Halmstad | Allsvenskan | 3-0 |
| 2023-05-14 | Halmstad | Malmo FF | Allsvenskan | 0-1 |
| 2021-12-04 | Malmo FF | Halmstad | Allsvenskan | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Halmstad vs Malmo FF odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 20.5%, draw 23.3%, away 56.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 4.64 | 4.10 | 1.64 |
| Bet365 | 4.50 | 3.80 | 1.67 |
| BetVictor | 4.40 | 3.90 | 1.65 |
| Betano | 4.65 | 3.90 | 1.67 |
| Betfair | 4.60 | 4.10 | 1.67 |
| Dafabet | 4.60 | 4.10 | 1.71 |
| Marathonbet | 4.70 | 4.10 | 1.62 |
| Pinnacle | 4.33 | 4.17 | 1.69 |
| SBO | 4.12 | 3.62 | 1.60 |
| William Hill | 4.50 | 3.80 | 1.65 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .