Malmo FF
vs
Hammarby FF
Garuda Lions Prediction: Hammarby FF
0 – 1 Predicted score · 16% model probability
- WhyBetter recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Hammarby FF is the favourite, not a value bet.
Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF
| Probability | Malmo FF | Draw | Hammarby FF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 25.7% | 35.4% | 39.0% |
| Market | 23.9% | 23.9% | 52.3% |
| Final | 24.3% | 26.7% | 48.9% |
| Edge | +0.5% | +2.9% | -3.3% |
Why Hammarby FF
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.78, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -12.9% per unit staked (our 48.9% × 1.78 − 1).
Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF match preview
Malmo FF faces Hammarby FF in an Allsvenskan clash, with the probabilities indicating a close contest. Our model gives Malmo FF a 29% chance of winning, while Hammarby FF is slightly favored at 36%, with a 35% probability for a draw. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 15%. Expected goals suggest Malmo FF will generate 0.84, compared to Hammarby FF's 0.97.
Recent form shows Malmo FF with two draws and two losses in their last five matches, while Hammarby FF has won three of their last five, including a recent loss. In their last three head-to-head encounters, Hammarby FF has won all matches against Malmo FF. The confidence grade for this matchup is C, indicating moderate uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Malmo FF and Hammarby FF expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.78
Malmo FF and Hammarby FF attack and defence ratings
Malmo FF
Hammarby FF
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
Before and after this match
Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hammarby FF | 48.9% | 2.04 | -3.3% | 1.78 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 73.6% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 64.5% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 75.7% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.0% | 1.64 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Malmo FF | 24.3% |
| Draw | 26.7% | |
| Hammarby FF | 48.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 26.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 73.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35.5% |
| No | 64.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 51.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 75.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hammarby FF win | 15.7% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.3% | |
| Loss | 61.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 18.2% |
| 0-1 | 15.7% | |
| 1-1 | 14.4% |
Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF stats
Malmo FF and Hammarby FF recent form
| Malmo FF |
DLWLWD |
| Hammarby FF |
WWLWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Malmo FF and Hammarby FF season so far
Malmo FF record
- They have won 11 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 44% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hammarby FF record
- They have won 14 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-17 | Hammarby FF | Malmo FF | Allsvenskan | 4-1 |
| 2025-10-27 | Malmo FF | Hammarby FF | Allsvenskan | 1-3 |
| 2025-04-23 | Hammarby FF | Malmo FF | Allsvenskan | 2-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Malmo FF vs Hammarby FF odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 23.9%, draw 23.9%, away 52.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.90 | 3.90 | 1.78 |