IFK Goteborg
vs
Malmo FF
Garuda Lions Prediction: IFK Goteborg
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — IFK Goteborg is the favourite, not a value bet.
IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF overview
Garuda Lions analysis: IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF
| Probability | IFK Goteborg | Draw | Malmo FF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.0% | 33.2% | 28.8% |
| Market | 39.8% | 26.7% | 33.5% |
| Final | 39.3% | 28.3% | 32.4% |
| Edge | -0.4% | +1.6% | -1.2% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.40, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.7% per unit staked (our 39.3% × 2.40 − 1).
IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF match preview
In the upcoming Allsvenskan match between IFK Goteborg and Malmo FF, the model indicates a 42% probability of a home win for Goteborg, while Malmo has a 26% chance of securing victory. The likelihood of a draw stands at 32%. The most probable scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Goteborg, with a 13% chance of occurring. Expected goals are calculated at 1.21 for Goteborg and 0.90 for Malmo.
Recent form shows IFK Goteborg with three draws followed by two wins, while Malmo FF has experienced mixed results with two wins, two losses, and a draw in their last five matches. In their last three encounters, both teams have one win each, along with one draw, indicating a competitive matchup ahead. The model suggests a 43% chance for both teams to score and a 35% probability for over 2.5 goals.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
IFK Goteborg and Malmo FF expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.02
IFK Goteborg and Malmo FF attack and defence ratings
IFK Goteborg
Malmo FF
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
Before and after this match
IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | IFK Goteborg | 39.3% | 2.54 | -0.4% | 2.40 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 67.1% | 1.49 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 58.5% | 1.71 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.7% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 62.0% | 1.61 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | IFK Goteborg | 39.3% |
| Draw | 28.3% | |
| Malmo FF | 32.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 32.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 67.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.5% |
| No | 58.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 67.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 60.7% | |
| Handicap -1 | IFK Goteborg win | 16.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 62.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 14.6% | |
| 1-0 | 13.2% |
IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF stats
IFK Goteborg and Malmo FF recent form
| IFK Goteborg |
LDDDWW |
| Malmo FF |
LWDLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
IFK Goteborg and Malmo FF season so far
IFK Goteborg record
- They have won 10 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 6 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 6 penalties (67%).
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Malmo FF record
- They have won 12 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.9 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Malmo FF | IFK Goteborg | Allsvenskan | 4-0 |
| 2025-08-24 | Malmo FF | IFK Goteborg | Allsvenskan | 0-0 |
| 2025-05-25 | IFK Goteborg | Malmo FF | Allsvenskan | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
IFK Goteborg vs Malmo FF odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 39.8%, draw 26.7%, away 33.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.36 | 3.50 | 2.77 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.50 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.40 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| Betfair | 2.38 | 3.50 | 2.80 |
| Dafabet | 2.40 | 3.55 | 2.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.34 | 3.50 | 2.76 |
| Pinnacle | 2.40 | 3.51 | 2.82 |
| SBO | 2.23 | 3.20 | 2.57 |
| William Hill | 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .