Orgryte IS
vs
Vasteras SK FK
Garuda Lions Prediction: Vasteras SK FK
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.05.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK
| Probability | Orgryte IS | Draw | Vasteras SK FK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.1% | 25.5% | 53.4% |
| Market | 32.5% | 26.1% | 41.4% |
| Final | 29.6% | 26.0% | 44.4% |
| Edge | -2.9% | -0.2% | +3.0% |
Why Vasteras SK FK
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.05.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Vasteras SK FK below our published probability: +3.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.28, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.2% per unit staked (our 44.4% × 2.28 − 1).
Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK match preview
Orgryte IS faces Vasteras SK FK in a match where the probabilities indicate a significant advantage for the visitors, with Vasteras SK FK at 51% to win compared to Orgryte IS's 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-2, reflecting Vasteras' stronger expected goals of 1.76 against Orgryte's 1.12. Both teams are expected to score, with a probability of 57%, and there is a 55% chance that the match will see over 2.5 goals.
Recent form shows Orgryte IS struggling with five matches without a win, while Vasteras SK FK has shown resilience, winning four of their last six games. In their last three head-to-head encounters, Orgryte IS has not managed a victory, recording two losses and one draw against Vasteras SK FK.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.82
Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK attack and defence ratings
Orgryte IS
Vasteras SK FK
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
Before and after this match
Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vasteras SK FK | 44.4% | 2.25 | +3.0% | 2.28 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.0% | 1.35 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 46.6% | 2.14 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Orgryte IS | 29.6% |
| Draw | 26.0% | |
| Vasteras SK FK | 44.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 53.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 46.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 55.0% |
| No | 45.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 70.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vasteras SK FK win | 30.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.8% | |
| Loss | 46.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.2% |
| 1-2 | 9.8% | |
| 0-1 | 9.5% |
Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK stats
Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK recent form
| Orgryte IS |
LLDWLL |
| Vasteras SK FK |
WWLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Orgryte IS and Vasteras SK FK season so far
Orgryte IS record
- They have won 4 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.7 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 3 penalties (100%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Vasteras SK FK record
- They have won 13 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-24 | Vasteras SK FK | Orgryte IS | Allsvenskan | 2-0 |
| 2025-10-24 | Orgryte IS | Vasteras SK FK | Superettan | 0-2 |
| 2025-04-08 | Vasteras SK FK | Orgryte IS | Superettan | 1-1 |
| 2023-11-04 | Orgryte IS | Vasteras SK FK | Superettan | 1-0 |
| 2023-04-10 | Vasteras SK FK | Orgryte IS | Superettan | 0-0 |
| 2022-08-27 | Vasteras SK FK | Orgryte IS | Superettan | 1-1 |
| 2022-07-26 | Orgryte IS | Vasteras SK FK | Superettan | 1-1 |
| 2021-10-30 | Vasteras SK FK | Orgryte IS | Superettan | 2-2 |
| 2021-05-01 | Orgryte IS | Vasteras SK FK | Superettan | 1-1 |
| 2020-11-22 | Vasteras SK FK | Orgryte IS | Superettan | 0-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Orgryte IS vs Vasteras SK FK odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.5%, draw 26.1%, away 41.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.85 | 3.56 | 2.28 |
| Bet365 | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.25 |
| BetVictor | 2.88 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| Betano | 2.85 | 3.65 | 2.25 |
| Betfair | 2.88 | 3.60 | 2.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.95 | 3.75 | 2.26 |
| Marathonbet | 2.84 | 3.56 | 2.26 |
| Pinnacle | 2.88 | 3.78 | 2.25 |
| SBO | 2.73 | 3.17 | 2.13 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .