Degerfors IF
vs
Gais
Garuda Lions Prediction: Gais
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 0.90.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Degerfors IF vs Gais overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Degerfors IF vs Gais
| Probability | Degerfors IF | Draw | Gais |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 18.2% | 25.9% | 56.0% |
| Market | 32.3% | 26.4% | 41.3% |
| Final | 28.8% | 26.3% | 45.0% |
| Edge | -3.5% | -0.1% | +3.7% |
Why Gais
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.73 vs 0.90.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Gais below our published probability: +3.7 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.34, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +5.3% per unit staked (our 45.0% × 2.34 − 1).
Degerfors IF vs Gais match preview
Degerfors IF faces Gais in an Allsvenskan clash with the home side struggling in recent form, recording five losses and one draw in their last six matches. In contrast, Gais has shown some resilience, with two wins, one draw, and three losses in their recent outings. The expected goals suggest a significant disparity, with Degerfors IF projected at 0.85 and Gais at 1.69, indicating a potential challenge for the home team.
Our model gives Degerfors IF a 23% chance of winning, while Gais is favored at 50%. The most likely scoreline is 0-1, occurring with a 12% probability. Additionally, there is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% likelihood that both teams will score. The confidence grade for this match stands at C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Degerfors IF and Gais expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.62
Degerfors IF and Gais attack and defence ratings
Degerfors IF
Gais
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
Before and after this match
Degerfors IF vs Gais markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gais | 45.0% | 2.22 | +3.7% | 2.34 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 50.2% | 1.99 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.7% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.0% | 2.27 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Degerfors IF | 28.8% |
| Draw | 26.3% | |
| Gais | 45.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 49.8% |
| No | 50.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 55.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.7% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gais win | 32.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.0% | |
| Loss | 44.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.3% |
| 0-1 | 11.4% | |
| 0-2 | 10.8% |
Degerfors IF vs Gais stats
Degerfors IF and Gais recent form
| Degerfors IF |
LLLLDL |
| Gais |
WWDLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Degerfors IF and Gais season so far
Degerfors IF record
- They have won 5 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 13 of 27 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gais record
- They have won 10 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 11 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 27 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Degerfors IF vs Gais head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-16 | Gais | Degerfors IF | Allsvenskan | 1-1 |
| 2025-07-19 | Degerfors IF | Gais | Allsvenskan | 0-3 |
| 2025-04-13 | Gais | Degerfors IF | Allsvenskan | 2-0 |
| 2024-02-24 | Degerfors IF | Gais | Svenska Cupen | 2-2 |
| 2023-02-09 | Gais | Degerfors IF | Friendlies Clubs | 1-0 |
| 2020-11-07 | Degerfors IF | Gais | Superettan | 2-1 |
| 2020-08-12 | Gais | Degerfors IF | Superettan | 0-0 |
| 2019-07-20 | Degerfors IF | Gais | Superettan | 0-1 |
| 2019-06-24 | Gais | Degerfors IF | Superettan | 0-3 |
| 2018-09-22 | Degerfors IF | Gais | Superettan | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Degerfors IF vs Gais odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.3%, draw 26.4%, away 41.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.94 | 3.60 | 2.21 |
| Bet365 | 3.10 | 3.30 | 2.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.88 | 3.30 | 2.25 |
| Betano | 2.85 | 3.55 | 2.30 |
| Betfair | 2.88 | 3.60 | 2.25 |
| Dafabet | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.34 |
| Marathonbet | 2.93 | 3.60 | 2.19 |
| Pinnacle | 2.85 | 3.68 | 2.30 |
| SBO | 2.70 | 3.07 | 2.20 |
| William Hill | 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .