Kalmar FF
vs
Sirius
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sirius
0 – 1 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.76.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Kalmar FF vs Sirius overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kalmar FF vs Sirius
| Probability | Kalmar FF | Draw | Sirius |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 19.5% | 30.3% | 50.2% |
| Market | 31.9% | 26.7% | 41.4% |
| Final | 28.8% | 27.6% | 43.6% |
| Edge | -3.1% | +0.9% | +2.2% |
Why Sirius
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.37 vs 0.76.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Sirius below our published probability: +2.2 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.32, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +1.1% per unit staked (our 43.6% × 2.32 − 1).
Kalmar FF vs Sirius match preview
Kalmar FF faces Sirius in the Allsvenskan, with the probabilities indicating a challenging match for the home side. Kalmar FF has a 22% chance of winning, while Sirius is favored at 50%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1 in favor of Sirius, occurring with a 12% probability. Kalmar FF's recent form shows a struggle, with six consecutive matches resulting in three losses and a single win, while Sirius has shown improvement, winning three of their last five matches.
Expected goals further highlight the disparity, with Kalmar FF projected at 0.92 and Sirius at 1.50. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals stands at 44%, and both teams scoring is at 48%. In their last head-to-head encounter, Sirius secured a win, adding to the challenges Kalmar FF faces in this matchup.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kalmar FF and Sirius expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.13
Kalmar FF and Sirius attack and defence ratings
Kalmar FF
Sirius
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kalmar FF vs Sirius markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sirius | 43.6% | 2.29 | +2.2% | 2.32 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.1% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.0% | 1.69 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.4% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.8% | 2.01 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kalmar FF | 28.8% |
| Draw | 27.6% | |
| Sirius | 43.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 41.0% |
| No | 59.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 56.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 71.2% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sirius win | 25.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 25.1% | |
| Loss | 49.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-1 | 15.0% |
| 1-1 | 13.6% | |
| 0-0 | 13.1% |
Kalmar FF vs Sirius stats
Kalmar FF and Sirius recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kalmar FF and Sirius season so far
Kalmar FF record
- They have won 6 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 0.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 14 of 26 matches.
Sirius record
- They have won 17 of their 26 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 26 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 26 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kalmar FF vs Sirius head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Sirius | Kalmar FF | Allsvenskan | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Kalmar FF vs Sirius odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 31.9%, draw 26.7%, away 41.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.94 | 3.48 | 2.26 |
| Bet365 | 2.88 | 3.60 | 2.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.88 | 3.40 | 2.20 |
| Betano | 2.90 | 3.55 | 2.25 |
| Betfair | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.25 |
| Dafabet | 2.95 | 3.60 | 2.32 |
| Marathonbet | 2.93 | 3.48 | 2.24 |
| Pinnacle | 3.00 | 3.55 | 2.27 |
| SBO | 2.74 | 3.12 | 2.15 |
| William Hill | 2.90 | 3.30 | 2.25 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .