Sirius
vs
Halmstad
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sirius
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 0.78.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Sirius is the favourite, not a value bet.
Sirius vs Halmstad overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sirius vs Halmstad
| Probability | Sirius | Draw | Halmstad |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 58.4% | 25.9% | 15.7% |
| Market | 73.2% | 16.5% | 10.3% |
| Final | 69.5% | 18.8% | 11.7% |
| Edge | -3.7% | +2.4% | +1.3% |
Why Sirius
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.71 vs 0.78.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.30, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.6% per unit staked (our 69.5% × 1.30 − 1).
Sirius vs Halmstad match preview
Sirius enters this match against Halmstad with a strong probability of winning at 70%, while Halmstad has a 12% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-0, occurring at a rate of 13%. Sirius has shown solid recent form, with two wins in their last three matches, while Halmstad's recent results include two losses in their last three games.
In terms of expected goals, Sirius is projected to score 1.71, compared to Halmstad's 0.78. Both teams have a 45% probability of scoring, and the model suggests a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals in the match. Historically, Sirius has performed well against Halmstad, with two wins and one draw in their last three encounters. The confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sirius and Halmstad expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.48
Sirius and Halmstad attack and defence ratings
Sirius
Halmstad
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 27 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sirius vs Halmstad markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sirius | 69.5% | 1.44 | -3.7% | 1.30 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 54.8% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 54.6% | 1.83 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.3% | 1.13 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 41.6% | 2.40 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sirius | 69.5% |
| Draw | 18.8% | |
| Halmstad | 11.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 45.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 54.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 45.4% |
| No | 54.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 88.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 81.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 30.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sirius win | 33.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.9% | |
| Loss | 41.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 13.1% |
| 1-1 | 12.2% | |
| 2-0 | 12.1% |
Sirius vs Halmstad stats
Sirius and Halmstad recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sirius and Halmstad season so far
Sirius record
- They have won 17 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Halmstad record
- They have won 4 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 11 of 25 matches.
Sirius vs Halmstad head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-03 | Halmstad | Sirius | Allsvenskan | 0-2 |
| 2025-08-09 | Halmstad | Sirius | Allsvenskan | 0-1 |
| 2025-04-27 | Sirius | Halmstad | Allsvenskan | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sirius vs Halmstad odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 73.2%, draw 16.5%, away 10.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.28 | 5.65 | 8.90 |
| Bet365 | 1.25 | 5.75 | 9.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.25 | 5.50 | 9.00 |
| Betano | 1.30 | 5.60 | 8.50 |
| Betfair | 1.25 | 6.00 | 9.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.27 | 6.40 | 9.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.27 | 5.65 | 9.00 |
| Pinnacle | 1.30 | 5.88 | 8.23 |
| William Hill | 1.29 | 5.00 | 8.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .