Hammarby FF
vs
Sirius
Garuda Lions Prediction: Hammarby FF
1 – 0 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 0.85.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Hammarby FF is the favourite, not a value bet.
Hammarby FF vs Sirius overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Hammarby FF vs Sirius
| Probability | Hammarby FF | Draw | Sirius |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.3% | 29.6% | 21.1% |
| Market | 62.1% | 20.7% | 17.2% |
| Final | 58.9% | 22.9% | 18.2% |
| Edge | -3.2% | +2.2% | +1.0% |
Why Hammarby FF
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.42 vs 0.85.
Best available price on the pick: 1.53, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -9.9% per unit staked (our 58.9% × 1.53 − 1).
Hammarby FF vs Sirius match preview
Hammarby FF faces Sirius in an Allsvenskan clash, with Hammarby FF holding a 44% probability of winning according to our model. The expected goals for Hammarby FF stand at 1.34, while Sirius is projected at 0.99. Recent form shows Hammarby FF with a mixed record of W-L-W-W-D-L, while Sirius has been more consistent, recording D-W-W-W-W-L.
In their last four encounters, Hammarby FF has secured 1 win, while Sirius has claimed 2 victories and there has been 1 draw. The most likely scoreline predicted is 1-0 in favor of Hammarby FF, occurring with a 12% probability. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 41%, and both teams are expected to score 48% of the time.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Hammarby FF and Sirius expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.27
Hammarby FF and Sirius attack and defence ratings
Hammarby FF
Sirius
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
Before and after this match
Hammarby FF vs Sirius markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hammarby FF | 58.9% | 1.70 | -3.2% | 1.53 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 60.5% | 1.65 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 55.5% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.8% | 1.22 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hammarby FF | 58.9% |
| Draw | 22.9% | |
| Sirius | 18.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 39.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 60.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.5% |
| No | 55.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 81.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hammarby FF win | 25.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.3% | |
| Loss | 50.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 1-0 | 13.5% | |
| 0-0 | 11.6% |
Hammarby FF vs Sirius stats
Hammarby FF and Sirius recent form
| Hammarby FF |
WWLWWD |
| Sirius |
LDWWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Hammarby FF and Sirius season so far
Hammarby FF record
- They have won 14 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sirius record
- They have won 17 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 39% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hammarby FF vs Sirius head-to-head
Last 4 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-13 | Sirius | Hammarby FF | Allsvenskan | 2-0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Hammarby FF | Sirius | Svenska Cupen | 2-2 |
| 2025-08-24 | Sirius | Hammarby FF | Allsvenskan | 3-1 |
| 2025-05-14 | Hammarby FF | Sirius | Allsvenskan | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Hammarby FF vs Sirius odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 62.1%, draw 20.7%, away 17.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.48 | 4.60 | 5.66 |
| Bet365 | 1.53 | 4.33 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.45 | 4.40 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.52 | 4.50 | 5.30 |
| Dafabet | 1.52 | 4.70 | 5.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.47 | 4.60 | 5.65 |
| Pinnacle | 1.50 | 4.61 | 5.54 |
| SBO | 1.44 | 4.05 | 4.84 |
| William Hill | 1.50 | 4.20 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .