Sirius
vs
AIK Stockholm
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sirius
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
Sirius vs AIK Stockholm overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sirius vs AIK Stockholm
| Probability | Sirius | Draw | AIK Stockholm |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 57.2% | 20.6% | 22.2% |
| Market | 60.6% | 21.2% | 18.2% |
| Final | 59.7% | 21.1% | 19.2% |
| Edge | -3.4% | -0.6% | +4.0% |
Why Sirius
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.40 vs 1.48.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.54, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Sirius vs AIK Stockholm match preview
Sirius enters this match against AIK Stockholm with a strong recent form, having won four of their last six games, while AIK Stockholm has struggled, recording two losses and two draws in their last five matches. The model gives Sirius a 61% probability of winning, with a predicted scoreline of 2-1 being the most likely outcome at 9%. The expected goals suggest a dominant performance from Sirius, projected at 2.44 compared to AIK's 1.31.
Additionally, there is a high likelihood of goals in this fixture, with a 72% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 68% probability that both teams will score. In their last three encounters, Sirius has secured two victories against AIK Stockholm, who has managed one win. The confidence grade for this match stands at C, indicating moderate certainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sirius and AIK Stockholm expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.88
Sirius and AIK Stockholm attack and defence ratings
Sirius
AIK Stockholm
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 25 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sirius vs AIK Stockholm markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sirius | 59.7% | 1.67 | -3.4% | 1.54 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.0% | 1.41 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.8% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 42.8% | 2.34 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sirius | 59.7% |
| Draw | 21.1% | |
| AIK Stockholm | 19.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 74.4% |
| Under 2.5 | 25.6% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 71.0% |
| No | 29.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 40.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sirius win | 37.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.1% | |
| Loss | 42.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.8% |
| 1-1 | 8.1% | |
| 3-1 | 7.0% |
Sirius vs AIK Stockholm stats
Sirius and AIK Stockholm recent form
| Sirius |
DWWWWL |
| AIK Stockholm |
DLLDLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sirius and AIK Stockholm season so far
Sirius record
- They have won 17 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 2.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
- They have converted 5 of 6 penalties (83%).
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
AIK Stockholm record
- They have won 9 of their 23 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 23 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 23 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sirius vs AIK Stockholm head-to-head
Last 3 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | AIK Stockholm | Sirius | Allsvenskan | 0-3 |
| 2025-08-31 | AIK Stockholm | Sirius | Allsvenskan | 2-1 |
| 2025-06-01 | Sirius | AIK Stockholm | Allsvenskan | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sirius vs AIK Stockholm odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 60.6%, draw 21.2%, away 18.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.54 | 4.40 | 5.12 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
2 snapshots recorded, from .