Degerfors IF
vs
Vasteras SK FK
Garuda Lions Prediction: Vasteras SK FK
0 – 1 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.39 vs 0.84.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK
| Probability | Degerfors IF | Draw | Vasteras SK FK |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.4% | 29.9% | 48.7% |
| Market | 38.5% | 28.4% | 33.1% |
| Final | 34.2% | 28.8% | 37.0% |
| Edge | -4.3% | +0.4% | +3.9% |
Why Vasteras SK FK
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.39 vs 0.84.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Vasteras SK FK below our published probability: +3.9 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.90, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +7.2% per unit staked (our 37.0% × 2.90 − 1).
Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK match preview
Degerfors IF faces Vasteras SK FK in their upcoming Allsvenskan match, with the home side showing a 23% probability of winning compared to Vasteras's 45%. The model suggests a likely scoreline of 0-1, with Vasteras expected to generate 1.23 expected goals against Degerfors's 0.82. Recent form indicates Degerfors has struggled, recording one win in their last six matches, while Vasteras has been more consistent, winning four of their last six.
The probability of a draw stands at 32%, with both teams having a 41% chance of scoring. The model also indicates a 34% likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match. In their last encounter, Vasteras secured a win, further solidifying their advantage in this matchup.
Degerfors IF and Vasteras SK FK team news
Degerfors IF news
- J. Pikkarainen — knee injury
Vasteras SK FK news
- I. Lushaku — inactive
- M. Diallo — health problems
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Degerfors IF and Vasteras SK FK expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.23
Degerfors IF and Vasteras SK FK attack and defence ratings
Degerfors IF
Vasteras SK FK
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
Before and after this match
Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Vasteras SK FK | 37.0% | 2.70 | +3.9% | 2.90 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 61.4% | 1.63 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 56.0% | 1.79 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.2% | 1.40 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 51.3% | 1.95 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Degerfors IF | 34.2% |
| Draw | 28.8% | |
| Vasteras SK FK | 37.0% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 38.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 61.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 44.0% |
| No | 56.0% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.0% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 65.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Vasteras SK FK win | 24.4% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.3% | |
| Loss | 51.3% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.8% |
| 0-1 | 13.7% | |
| 0-0 | 12.0% |
Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK stats
Degerfors IF and Vasteras SK FK recent form
| Degerfors IF |
LLDLLW |
| Vasteras SK FK |
LWLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Degerfors IF and Vasteras SK FK season so far
Degerfors IF record
- They have won 5 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 25 matches.
Vasteras SK FK record
- They have won 11 of their 25 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
- They have kept 8 clean sheets in 25 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 25 matches.
Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Vasteras SK FK | Degerfors IF | Allsvenskan | 2-0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Vasteras SK FK | Degerfors IF | Friendlies Clubs | 0-1 |
| 2025-03-08 | Degerfors IF | Vasteras SK FK | Friendlies Clubs | 1-0 |
| 2024-07-15 | Degerfors IF | Vasteras SK FK | Friendlies Clubs | 3-1 |
| 2024-03-26 | Vasteras SK FK | Degerfors IF | Friendlies Clubs | 0-0 |
| 2021-03-14 | Degerfors IF | Vasteras SK FK | Svenska Cupen | 3-4 |
| 2020-10-05 | Degerfors IF | Vasteras SK FK | Superettan | 4-1 |
| 2020-06-21 | Vasteras SK FK | Degerfors IF | Superettan | 2-2 |
| 2019-09-22 | Vasteras SK FK | Degerfors IF | Superettan | 1-0 |
| 2019-06-15 | Degerfors IF | Vasteras SK FK | Superettan | 3-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Degerfors IF vs Vasteras SK FK odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 38.5%, draw 28.4%, away 33.1%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.40 | 3.40 | 2.79 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 3.25 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.38 | 3.25 | 2.75 |
| Betano | 2.47 | 3.20 | 2.85 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 3.25 | 2.88 |
| Dafabet | 2.48 | 3.40 | 2.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.38 | 3.40 | 2.78 |
| Pinnacle | 2.40 | 3.37 | 2.90 |
| SBO | 2.31 | 3.04 | 2.57 |
| William Hill | 2.38 | 3.20 | 2.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .