Kalmar FF
vs
Gais
Garuda Lions Prediction: Gais
0 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.02.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Kalmar FF vs Gais overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kalmar FF vs Gais
| Probability | Kalmar FF | Draw | Gais |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 22.5% | 27.1% | 50.4% |
| Market | 37.7% | 28.0% | 34.2% |
| Final | 33.9% | 27.8% | 38.3% |
| Edge | -3.8% | -0.2% | +4.0% |
Why Gais
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.63 vs 1.02.
- The market prices Gais below our published probability: +4.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.80, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +7.2% per unit staked (our 38.3% × 2.80 − 1).
Kalmar FF vs Gais match preview
Kalmar FF faces Gais in an Allsvenskan clash, with the model indicating a 28% chance of a home win for Kalmar and a 44% chance for Gais, while a draw stands at 28%. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-1, occurring at a rate of 9%. Kalmar's recent form shows a struggle, with five consecutive losses, while Gais has mixed results, including two losses, a win, a draw, and a win.
In terms of expected goals, Kalmar FF is forecasted to score 1.16, while Gais is projected at 1.50. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match is estimated at 50%, and both teams scoring is predicted at 55%. Given these statistics, the confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kalmar FF and Gais expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.65
Kalmar FF and Gais attack and defence ratings
Kalmar FF
Gais
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 26 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kalmar FF vs Gais markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Gais | 38.3% | 2.61 | +4.0% | 2.80 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.5% | 1.90 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.2% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.6% | 2.02 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kalmar FF | 33.9% |
| Draw | 27.8% | |
| Gais | 38.3% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 49.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 50.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.5% |
| No | 47.5% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.7% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 66.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Gais win | 27.5% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.0% | |
| Loss | 49.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.9% |
| 0-1 | 10.4% | |
| 1-2 | 9.6% |
Kalmar FF vs Gais stats
Kalmar FF and Gais recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kalmar FF and Gais season so far
Kalmar FF record
- They have won 6 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 12 of 24 matches.
Gais record
- They have won 8 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They have kept 10 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 24 matches.
- 34% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kalmar FF vs Gais head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-30 | Gais | Kalmar FF | Allsvenskan | 3-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Kalmar FF vs Gais odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 37.7%, draw 28.0%, away 34.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.45 | 3.38 | 2.70 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.70 |
| BetVictor | 2.40 | 3.25 | 2.70 |
| Betano | 2.47 | 3.30 | 2.77 |
| Dafabet | 2.50 | 3.40 | 2.80 |
| Marathonbet | 2.45 | 3.38 | 2.70 |
| Pinnacle | 2.50 | 3.32 | 2.80 |
| SBO | 2.32 | 3.02 | 2.56 |
| William Hill | 2.45 | 3.10 | 2.70 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
6 snapshots recorded, from .