Hammarby FF
vs
IF Elfsborg
Garuda Lions Prediction: Hammarby FF
1 – 0 Predicted score · 14% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.26 vs 0.87.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Hammarby FF is the favourite, not a value bet.
Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg
| Probability | Hammarby FF | Draw | IF Elfsborg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.1% | 31.6% | 24.3% |
| Market | 70.0% | 18.3% | 11.6% |
| Final | 63.5% | 21.7% | 14.8% |
| Edge | -6.5% | +3.3% | +3.2% |
Why Hammarby FF
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.26 vs 0.87.
- Better recent form: 5 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.35, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -14.2% per unit staked (our 63.5% × 1.35 − 1).
Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg match preview
Hammarby FF enters this match with a strong probability of winning at 61%, while IF Elfsborg stands at 16%. The expected goals for Hammarby FF are 1.26 compared to 0.87 for IF Elfsborg, indicating a potential advantage in offensive performance. Hammarby FF's recent form shows four wins in their last six matches, while IF Elfsborg has two wins and four draws in the same period.
Historically, Hammarby FF has performed well against IF Elfsborg, winning seven of their last ten encounters. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring with a 14% probability. Additionally, there is a 43% chance that both teams will score, and the likelihood of over 2.5 goals is estimated at 36%.
Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg team news
Hammarby FF news
- A. Boudri — inactive
- B. Hedlof — hip injury
IF Elfsborg news
- L. Hagg — inactive
- P. Frick — inactive
- V. Elfstrom — inactive
Reported injuries and suspensions from our data provider. Confirmed line-ups appear ~40 minutes before kickoff.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.12
Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg attack and defence ratings
Hammarby FF
IF Elfsborg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 28 fixtures
Before and after this match
Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hammarby FF | 63.5% | 1.57 | -6.5% | 1.35 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 64.3% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 57.2% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.2% | 1.17 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.9% | 1.79 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Hammarby FF | 63.5% |
| Draw | 21.7% | |
| IF Elfsborg | 14.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 35.7% |
| Under 2.5 | 64.3% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 42.8% |
| No | 57.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 85.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 36.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Hammarby FF win | 20.6% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.5% | |
| Loss | 55.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 14.3% |
| 1-0 | 13.7% | |
| 0-0 | 13.2% |
Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg stats
Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg recent form
| Hammarby FF |
WWWWLW |
| IF Elfsborg |
WDDDWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Hammarby FF and IF Elfsborg season so far
Hammarby FF record
- They have won 17 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.4 on the road.
- They have kept 12 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 3 of 4 penalties (75%).
- 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
IF Elfsborg record
- They have won 12 of their 27 league games this season, scoring 1.5 goals per match.
- They have kept 9 clean sheets in 27 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-05 | IF Elfsborg | Hammarby FF | Allsvenskan | 1-2 |
| 2025-11-09 | Hammarby FF | IF Elfsborg | Allsvenskan | 3-0 |
| 2025-05-31 | IF Elfsborg | Hammarby FF | Allsvenskan | 0-2 |
| 2024-09-22 | IF Elfsborg | Hammarby FF | Allsvenskan | 0-0 |
| 2024-04-15 | Hammarby FF | IF Elfsborg | Allsvenskan | 3-0 |
| 2023-08-13 | Hammarby FF | IF Elfsborg | Allsvenskan | 1-0 |
| 2023-07-03 | IF Elfsborg | Hammarby FF | Allsvenskan | 2-0 |
| 2022-10-23 | IF Elfsborg | Hammarby FF | Allsvenskan | 2-1 |
| 2022-07-17 | Hammarby FF | IF Elfsborg | Allsvenskan | 3-0 |
| 2022-03-19 | Hammarby FF | IF Elfsborg | Svenska Cupen | 1-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Hammarby FF vs IF Elfsborg odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 70.0%, draw 18.3%, away 11.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.33 | 5.15 | 8.05 |
| Bet365 | 1.33 | 5.25 | 8.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.30 | 5.00 | 8.00 |
| Betano | 1.35 | 5.00 | 7.70 |
| Betfair | 1.30 | 5.00 | 7.50 |
| Dafabet | 1.35 | 5.40 | 8.00 |
| Marathonbet | 1.32 | 5.15 | 8.10 |
| Pinnacle | 1.35 | 5.57 | 8.02 |
| SBO | 1.33 | 4.84 | 6.76 |
| William Hill | 1.33 | 5.00 | 7.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
14 snapshots recorded, from .