Helsingborg
vs
Falkenbergs FF
Garuda Lions Prediction: Falkenbergs FF
0 – 1 Predicted score · 13% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 0.88.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Helsingborg vs Falkenbergs FF overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Helsingborg vs Falkenbergs FF
| Probability | Helsingborg | Draw | Falkenbergs FF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.4% | 28.3% | 51.3% |
| Market | 40.5% | 28.1% | 31.4% |
| Final | 35.5% | 28.2% | 36.4% |
| Edge | -5.0% | +0.0% | +5.0% |
Why Falkenbergs FF
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.53 vs 0.88.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
- The market prices Falkenbergs FF below our published probability: +5.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 3.13, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +13.8% per unit staked (our 36.4% × 3.13 − 1).
Helsingborg vs Falkenbergs FF match preview
Helsingborg faces Falkenbergs FF in a Superettan clash on November 7, 2026. Helsingborg's recent form shows a struggle, with five matches yielding only one point from a draw, while Falkenbergs FF has been more successful, winning four of their last six games. The probabilities indicate a close contest, with Helsingborg at 35% to win, Falkenbergs FF at 36%, and a draw at 28%. The expected goals suggest a slight edge for Falkenbergs FF, with 1.53 compared to Helsingborg's 0.88.
Historically, Helsingborg has had the upper hand in their last ten encounters, securing five wins and four draws against Falkenbergs FF, who have only managed one victory. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1 in favor of Falkenbergs FF, with a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% probability that both teams will score.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Helsingborg and Falkenbergs FF expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.40
Helsingborg and Falkenbergs FF attack and defence ratings
Helsingborg
Falkenbergs FF
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
Before and after this match
Helsingborg vs Falkenbergs FF markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Falkenbergs FF | 36.4% | 2.75 | +5.0% | 3.13 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 56.9% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 71.8% | 1.39 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.7% | 2.06 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Helsingborg | 35.5% |
| Draw | 28.2% | |
| Falkenbergs FF | 36.4% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 43.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 56.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 46.9% |
| No | 53.1% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 63.6% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Falkenbergs FF win | 27.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.1% | |
| Loss | 48.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.3% |
| 0-1 | 12.6% | |
| 0-2 | 10.5% |
Helsingborg vs Falkenbergs FF stats
Helsingborg and Falkenbergs FF recent form
| Helsingborg |
LDDLDL |
| Falkenbergs FF |
WLWWDW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Helsingborg and Falkenbergs FF season so far
Helsingborg record
- They have won 8 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 9 of 29 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Falkenbergs FF record
- They have won 16 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.9 goals per match.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 4 of 4 penalties (100%).
- 41% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Helsingborg vs Falkenbergs FF head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Falkenbergs FF | Helsingborg | Superettan | 2-3 |
| 2026-02-14 | Helsingborg | Falkenbergs FF | Friendlies Clubs | 1-2 |
| 2025-08-16 | Helsingborg | Falkenbergs FF | Superettan | 0-0 |
| 2025-06-14 | Falkenbergs FF | Helsingborg | Superettan | 2-2 |
| 2025-03-16 | Helsingborg | Falkenbergs FF | Friendlies Clubs | 2-1 |
| 2024-03-16 | Helsingborg | Falkenbergs FF | Friendlies Clubs | 2-1 |
| 2021-10-19 | Falkenbergs FF | Helsingborg | Superettan | 1-4 |
| 2021-07-27 | Helsingborg | Falkenbergs FF | Superettan | 4-0 |
| 2020-11-29 | Helsingborg | Falkenbergs FF | Allsvenskan | 0-0 |
| 2020-07-19 | Falkenbergs FF | Helsingborg | Allsvenskan | 2-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Helsingborg vs Falkenbergs FF odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 40.5%, draw 28.1%, away 31.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.31 | 3.28 | 2.93 |
| Bet365 | 2.30 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| Betano | 2.27 | 3.35 | 2.95 |
| Betfair | 2.25 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.28 | 3.35 | 3.00 |
| Marathonbet | 2.29 | 3.28 | 2.90 |
| Pinnacle | 2.31 | 3.27 | 3.13 |
| SBO | 2.14 | 3.12 | 2.76 |
| William Hill | 2.20 | 3.10 | 2.90 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
9 snapshots recorded, from .