IK brage
vs
Norrby IF
Garuda Lions Prediction: IK brage
2 – 1 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.17.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — IK brage is the favourite, not a value bet.
IK brage vs Norrby IF overview
Garuda Lions analysis: IK brage vs Norrby IF
| Probability | IK brage | Draw | Norrby IF |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.3% | 25.6% | 24.1% |
| Market | 42.7% | 26.9% | 30.4% |
| Final | 44.6% | 26.5% | 28.8% |
| Edge | +1.9% | -0.3% | -1.6% |
Why IK brage
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.77 vs 1.17.
Best available price on the pick: 2.24, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.1% per unit staked (our 44.6% × 2.24 − 1).
IK brage vs Norrby IF match preview
IK Brage faces Norrby IF in an upcoming Superettan match, with a probability of 45% for a home win, 27% for a draw, and 29% for an away victory according to our model. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1, with a 10% chance. The expected goals for IK Brage stand at 1.77, while Norrby IF is at 1.17.
Both teams have struggled in recent form, with IK Brage recording three losses, one win, and a draw in their last five matches. Norrby IF has a similar record, with three losses, one win, and a draw. In their last ten encounters, IK Brage has dominated with six wins compared to Norrby IF's one win and three draws, indicating a historical advantage for the home side.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
IK brage and Norrby IF expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.93
IK brage and Norrby IF attack and defence ratings
IK brage
Norrby IF
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
Before and after this match
IK brage vs Norrby IF markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | IK brage | 44.6% | 2.24 | +1.9% | 2.24 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.2% | 1.78 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.2% | 1.72 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 73.5% | 1.36 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.7% | 2.01 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | IK brage | 44.6% |
| Draw | 26.5% | |
| Norrby IF | 28.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 58.2% |
| No | 41.8% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 71.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 73.5% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 55.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | IK brage win | 28.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 21.9% | |
| Loss | 49.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 12.1% |
| 2-1 | 9.7% | |
| 1-0 | 8.3% |
IK brage vs Norrby IF stats
IK brage and Norrby IF recent form
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
IK brage and Norrby IF season so far
IK brage record
- They have won 6 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 2.1 goals per game at home against 1.1 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 29 matches.
- 43% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Norrby IF record
- They have won 5 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They average 1.3 goals per game at home against 0.8 on the road.
- They have kept 5 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 10 of 29 matches.
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
IK brage vs Norrby IF head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-05 | Norrby IF | IK brage | Superettan | 0-1 |
| 2023-03-05 | IK brage | Norrby IF | Svenska Cupen | 5-0 |
| 2022-08-09 | Norrby IF | IK brage | Superettan | 2-2 |
| 2022-05-28 | IK brage | Norrby IF | Superettan | 2-1 |
| 2021-10-17 | Norrby IF | IK brage | Superettan | 2-3 |
| 2021-05-15 | IK brage | Norrby IF | Superettan | 1-2 |
| 2020-11-02 | Norrby IF | IK brage | Superettan | 1-4 |
| 2020-08-12 | IK brage | Norrby IF | Superettan | 1-1 |
| 2019-08-26 | Norrby IF | IK brage | Superettan | 1-3 |
| 2019-05-12 | IK brage | Norrby IF | Superettan | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
IK brage vs Norrby IF odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 42.7%, draw 26.9%, away 30.4%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.17 | 3.42 | 3.06 |
| Bet365 | 2.15 | 3.50 | 2.90 |
| BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.50 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.15 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| Betfair | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.00 |
| Dafabet | 2.19 | 3.50 | 3.05 |
| Marathonbet | 2.15 | 3.42 | 3.04 |
| Pinnacle | 2.24 | 3.39 | 3.14 |
| SBO | 2.05 | 3.14 | 2.90 |
| William Hill | 2.15 | 3.10 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
7 snapshots recorded, from .