IFK Varnamo
vs
IFK Norrkoping
Garuda Lions Prediction: IFK Norrkoping
0 – 1 Predicted score · 11% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 0.95.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — IFK Norrkoping is the favourite, not a value bet.
IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping overview
Garuda Lions analysis: IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping
| Probability | IFK Varnamo | Draw | IFK Norrkoping |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 21.1% | 27.4% | 51.5% |
| Market | 24.9% | 23.1% | 51.9% |
| Final | 24.0% | 24.2% | 51.8% |
| Edge | -1.0% | +1.1% | -0.1% |
Why IFK Norrkoping
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.60 vs 0.95.
- Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 3 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 1.85, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -4.1% per unit staked (our 51.8% × 1.85 − 1).
IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping match preview
In the upcoming Superettan match between IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping, the probabilities indicate a competitive encounter, with IFK Norrkoping favored at 52%, while both IFK Varnamo and a draw sit at 24%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 0-1, with an expected goals tally of 0.95 for Varnamo and 1.60 for Norrkoping.
Recent form shows IFK Varnamo alternating wins and losses, with a record of W-L-W-L-W-L, while IFK Norrkoping has been more consistent, achieving W-W-D-W-W-D. In their last ten meetings, Norrkoping has dominated with 6 wins compared to Varnamo's 2, alongside 2 draws. The model suggests a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% likelihood of both teams scoring.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.55
IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping attack and defence ratings
IFK Varnamo
IFK Norrkoping
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 30 fixtures
Before and after this match
IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | IFK Norrkoping | 51.8% | 1.93 | -0.1% | 1.85 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 53.1% | 1.88 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.1% | 2.00 | — | — |
| Double chance | X2 (draw or away) | 76.0% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 48.5% | 2.06 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | IFK Varnamo | 24.0% |
| Draw | 24.2% | |
| IFK Norrkoping | 51.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 46.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 53.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 50.1% |
| No | 49.9% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 48.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 76.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | IFK Norrkoping win | 28.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.6% | |
| Loss | 48.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.0% |
| 0-1 | 11.3% | |
| 0-2 | 10.0% |
IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping stats
IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping recent form
| IFK Varnamo |
WLWLWL |
| IFK Norrkoping |
WWDWWD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
IFK Varnamo and IFK Norrkoping season so far
IFK Varnamo record
- They have won 10 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 8 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 37% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
IFK Norrkoping record
- They have won 20 of their 29 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They have kept 16 clean sheets in 29 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 29 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 7 matches.
- They have converted 1 of 3 penalties (33%).
- 45% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-04 | IFK Norrkoping | IFK Varnamo | Superettan | 6-0 |
| 2025-07-21 | IFK Norrkoping | IFK Varnamo | Allsvenskan | 3-1 |
| 2025-04-27 | IFK Varnamo | IFK Norrkoping | Allsvenskan | 1-3 |
| 2025-01-19 | IFK Norrkoping | IFK Varnamo | Friendlies Clubs | 1-0 |
| 2024-10-27 | IFK Varnamo | IFK Norrkoping | Allsvenskan | 1-2 |
| 2024-05-27 | IFK Norrkoping | IFK Varnamo | Allsvenskan | 0-4 |
| 2024-03-16 | IFK Norrkoping | IFK Varnamo | Friendlies Clubs | 1-1 |
| 2023-10-08 | IFK Varnamo | IFK Norrkoping | Allsvenskan | 2-1 |
| 2023-04-16 | IFK Norrkoping | IFK Varnamo | Allsvenskan | 2-1 |
| 2022-10-24 | IFK Varnamo | IFK Norrkoping | Allsvenskan | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
IFK Varnamo vs IFK Norrkoping odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 24.9%, draw 23.1%, away 51.9%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 3.80 | 3.98 | 1.77 |
| Bet365 | 3.60 | 3.80 | 1.80 |
| BetVictor | 3.90 | 4.10 | 1.75 |
| Betano | 3.60 | 3.85 | 1.85 |
| Betfair | 3.75 | 4.10 | 1.75 |
| Dafabet | 3.60 | 3.95 | 1.85 |
| Marathonbet | 3.80 | 3.98 | 1.75 |
| Pinnacle | 3.88 | 4.23 | 1.76 |
| SBO | 3.29 | 3.52 | 1.79 |
| William Hill | 3.60 | 3.80 | 1.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .