Garuda Lions
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1. Lig · Full time ·Matchday 3

Iğdır FK vs Kayserispor

0 – 1 Full time

Aktepe Stadium, AnkaraReferee: Alper Akarsu, Türkiye

Iğdır FK 36%
Draw 28%
Kayserispor 36%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Iğdır FK vs Kayserispor overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Iğdır FK vs Kayserispor

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityIğdır FKDrawKayserispor
Model45.8%28.8%25.3%
Market32.5%28.4%39.1%
Final35.8%28.5%35.7%
Edge+13.3%+0.5%-13.8%

Confidence: Low

Why Iğdır FK

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.46 vs 1.03.
  • The market prices Iğdır FK below the model: +13.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Iğdır FK ↓ / Kayserispor → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 7% 1 11% 14% 2 9% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 72%
3+ goals 45%
No goals 10%

Iğdır FK and Kayserispor expected goals

Iğdır FK 1.46
Kayserispor 1.03

Total expected goals: 2.48

Iğdır FK and Kayserispor attack and defence ratings

Iğdır FK

Attack 0.99 -1%
Defence 0.98 -2%

Kayserispor

Attack 0.85 -15%
Defence 0.88 -12%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Iğdır FK vs Kayserispor: result vs prediction

Iğdır FK 0 – 1 Kayserispor

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

1. Lig

Before and after this match

Iğdır FK vs Kayserispor markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Iğdır FK 35.8% 2.79 +13.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 54.8% 1.82 — —
Both teams to score Yes 50.5% 1.98 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 71.5% 1.40 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 54.2% 1.85 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Iğdır FK35.8%
Draw28.5%
Kayserispor35.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.545.2%
Under 2.554.8%
Both teams to scoreYes50.5%
No49.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)64.3%
12 (either side)71.5%
X2 (draw or away)64.2%
Handicap -1Iğdır FK win23.3%
Push (exactly one goal)22.6%
Loss54.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.7%
1-010.9%
0-09.6%

Iğdır FK vs Kayserispor stats

Iğdır FK and Kayserispor recent form

newest first
Iğdır FK LWDLDW
Kayserispor WWWLDW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Iğdır FK and Kayserispor going into this match

league record before kick-off

Iğdır FK record

  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • 50% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Kayserispor record

  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Iğdır FK vs Kayserispor head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Iğdır FK vs Kayserispor odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.5%, draw 28.4%, away 39.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.91 3.24 2.24
Bet365 2.80 2.90 2.45
BetVictor 2.90 3.20 2.30
Betano 2.90 3.25 2.35
Betfair 2.80 3.25 2.30
Dafabet 2.85 3.25 2.44
Marathonbet 2.83 3.24 2.23
Pinnacle 2.96 3.50 2.35
SBO 2.65 2.99 2.28
Superbet 2.82 3.15 2.42
William Hill 2.80 3.25 2.38

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.