Garuda Lions
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1. Lig · Full time ·Matchday 3

Ümraniyespor vs Esenler Erokspor

1 – 1 Full time

Ümraniye Belediyesi Sehir Stadi, IstanbulReferee: Oguzhan Gokcen, Türkiye

Ümraniyespor 28%
Draw 29%
Esenler Erokspor 44%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Ümraniyespor vs Esenler Erokspor overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Ümraniyespor vs Esenler Erokspor

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityÜmraniyesporDrawEsenler Erokspor
Model38.9%32.4%28.8%
Market24.3%27.2%48.4%
Final28.0%28.5%43.5%
Edge+14.5%+5.2%-19.7%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Ümraniyespor ↓ / Esenler Eroksp → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 13% 10% 1 13% 15% 2 8% 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 87%
2+ goals 64%
3+ goals 35%
No goals 13%

Ümraniyespor and Esenler Erokspor expected goals

Ümraniyespor 1.15
Esenler Erokspor 0.96

Total expected goals: 2.11

Ümraniyespor and Esenler Erokspor attack and defence ratings

Ümraniyespor

Attack 0.89 -11%
Defence 1.00 +0%

Esenler Erokspor

Attack 0.78 -22%
Defence 0.78 -22%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Ümraniyespor vs Esenler Erokspor: result vs prediction

Ümraniyespor 1 – 1 Esenler Erokspor

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

1. Lig

Before and after this match

Ümraniyespor vs Esenler Erokspor markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Esenler Erokspor 43.5% 2.30 -19.7% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 64.8% 1.54 — —
Both teams to score No 56.6% 1.77 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 72.0% 1.39 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 71.2% 1.40 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Ümraniyespor28.0%
Draw28.5%
Esenler Erokspor43.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.535.2%
Under 2.564.8%
Both teams to scoreYes43.4%
No56.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)56.5%
12 (either side)71.5%
X2 (draw or away)72.0%
Handicap -1Esenler Erokspor win10.8%
Push (exactly one goal)17.9%
Loss71.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.7%
0-013.5%
1-012.7%

Ümraniyespor vs Esenler Erokspor stats

Ümraniyespor and Esenler Erokspor recent form

newest first
Ümraniyespor LDLWLD
Esenler Erokspor DDLDLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Ümraniyespor and Esenler Erokspor going into this match

league record before kick-off

Ümraniyespor record

  • They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.

Esenler Erokspor record

  • They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.4 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.
  • 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Ümraniyespor vs Esenler Erokspor head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

0Ümraniyespor wins 0Draws 2Esenler Erokspor wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-02Esenler EroksporÜmraniyespor1. Lig1-0
2025-08-30ÜmraniyesporEsenler Erokspor1. Lig0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Ümraniyespor vs Esenler Erokspor odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 24.3%, draw 27.2%, away 48.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 3.35 3.40 1.95
1xBet 3.82 3.36 1.85
888Sport 3.40 3.25 2.05
Bet365 3.90 3.20 1.80
BetVictor 3.70 3.40 1.87
Betano 3.80 3.40 1.91
Betfair 3.60 3.50 1.85
Dafabet 3.85 3.45 1.92
Marathonbet 3.75 3.36 1.83
Pinnacle 3.93 3.64 1.92
SBO 3.10 3.10 1.90
Superbet 3.80 3.40 1.92
William Hill 3.80 3.30 1.91

Odds movement

Only one odds snapshot recorded so far — movement needs at least two.