Keçiörengücü
vs
Ümraniyespor
2 – 2 Full time
Keçiörengücü vs Ümraniyespor overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Keçiörengücü vs Ümraniyespor
| Probability | Keçiörengücü | Draw | Ümraniyespor |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 64.3% | 21.8% | 13.9% |
| Market | 57.3% | 24.4% | 18.3% |
| Final | 59.0% | 23.8% | 17.2% |
| Edge | +7.1% | -2.6% | -4.4% |
Why Keçiörengücü
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.09 vs 0.88.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
- The market prices Keçiörengücü below the model: +7.1 percentage points of edge.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Keçiörengücü and Ümraniyespor expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.98
Keçiörengücü and Ümraniyespor attack and defence ratings
Keçiörengücü
Ümraniyespor
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Keçiörengücü vs Ümraniyespor: result vs prediction
Keçiörengücü 2 – 2 Ümraniyespor
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✓ Correct |
Other Matchday 4 fixtures
Before and after this match
Keçiörengücü vs Ümraniyespor markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Keçiörengücü | 59.0% | 1.69 | +7.1% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.1% | 1.75 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.4% | 1.91 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.8% | 1.21 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Keçiörengücü win | 41.2% | 2.43 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Keçiörengücü | 59.0% |
| Draw | 23.8% | |
| Ümraniyespor | 17.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 57.1% |
| Under 2.5 | 42.9% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 52.4% |
| No | 47.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 82.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 76.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 41.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Keçiörengücü win | 41.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.1% | |
| Loss | 35.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-0 | 11.2% |
| 1-1 | 10.4% | |
| 2-1 | 9.9% |
Keçiörengücü vs Ümraniyespor stats
Keçiörengücü and Ümraniyespor recent form
| Keçiörengücü |
DWLLWW |
| Ümraniyespor |
DLDLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Keçiörengücü and Ümraniyespor going into this match
Keçiörengücü record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.5 goals per match.
- They average 3.0 goals per game at home against 2.0 on the road.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Ümraniyespor record
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
Keçiörengücü vs Ümraniyespor head-to-head
Last 10 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-02 | Ümraniyespor | Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig | 1-4 |
| 2025-12-28 | Keçiörengücü | Ümraniyespor | 1. Lig | 3-1 |
| 2025-04-20 | Keçiörengücü | Ümraniyespor | 1. Lig | 0-1 |
| 2024-12-15 | Ümraniyespor | Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig | 1-2 |
| 2024-04-28 | Keçiörengücü | Ümraniyespor | 1. Lig | 4-2 |
| 2023-12-09 | Ümraniyespor | Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig | 2-0 |
| 2022-04-19 | Ümraniyespor | Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig | 2-1 |
| 2021-11-28 | Keçiörengücü | Ümraniyespor | 1. Lig | 3-2 |
| 2021-02-19 | Keçiörengücü | Ümraniyespor | 1. Lig | 0-1 |
| 2020-10-17 | Ümraniyespor | Keçiörengücü | 1. Lig | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Keçiörengücü vs Ümraniyespor odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.3%, draw 24.4%, away 18.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.60 | 3.70 | 4.80 |
| 1xBet | 1.56 | 3.72 | 5.27 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 3.80 | 4.50 |
| BetVictor | 1.55 | 3.75 | 5.50 |
| Betano | 1.65 | 3.75 | 4.90 |
| Betfair | 1.60 | 3.80 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.61 | 3.95 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.54 | 3.72 | 5.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.57 | 3.94 | 5.45 |
| Superbet | 1.61 | 3.85 | 4.90 |
| William Hill | 1.60 | 3.70 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .