Garuda Lions
Today
1. Lig · Full time ·Matchday 4

İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük

1 – 1 Full time

Esenyurt Necmi Kadioglu Stadi, EsenyurtReferee: Oguzhan Aksu, Türkiye

İstanbulspor 37%
Draw 27%
Fatih Karagümrük 36%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük overview

Garuda Lions analysis: İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityİstanbulsporDrawFatih Karagümrük
Model49.7%25.7%24.6%
Market32.5%27.1%40.4%
Final36.8%26.8%36.5%
Edge+17.2%-1.4%-15.8%

Confidence: Low

Why İstanbulspor

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.75 vs 1.18.
  • The market prices İstanbulspor below the model: +17.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

İstanbulspor ↓ / Fatih Karagümr → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 6% 1 8% 12% 7% 2 8% 10% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 80%
3+ goals 56%
No goals 6%

İstanbulspor and Fatih Karagümrük expected goals

İstanbulspor 1.75
Fatih Karagümrük 1.18

Total expected goals: 2.94

İstanbulspor and Fatih Karagümrük attack and defence ratings

İstanbulspor

Attack 1.34 +34%
Defence 1.15 +15%

Fatih Karagümrük

Attack 0.83 -17%
Defence 0.79 -21%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük: result vs prediction

İstanbulspor 1 – 1 Fatih Karagümrük

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

1. Lig

Before and after this match

İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 İstanbulspor 36.8% 2.72 +17.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 56.3% 1.78 — —
Both teams to score Yes 58.5% 1.71 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.2% 1.37 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 50.4% 1.99 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2İstanbulspor36.8%
Draw26.8%
Fatih Karagümrük36.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.556.3%
Under 2.543.7%
Both teams to scoreYes58.5%
No41.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)63.5%
12 (either side)73.2%
X2 (draw or away)63.2%
Handicap -1İstanbulspor win27.8%
Push (exactly one goal)21.8%
Loss50.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-112.1%
2-19.6%
1-08.2%

İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük stats

İstanbulspor and Fatih Karagümrük recent form

newest first
İstanbulspor LDLWWW
Fatih Karagümrük WWLWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

İstanbulspor and Fatih Karagümrük going into this match

league record before kick-off

İstanbulspor record

  • They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.

Fatih Karagümrük record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2İstanbulspor wins 2Draws 6Fatih Karagümrük wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-12-17Fatih KaragümrükİstanbulsporTürkiye Kupası0-0
2025-02-22İstanbulsporFatih Karagümrük1. Lig2-0
2024-09-30Fatih Karagümrükİstanbulspor1. Lig1-0
2024-04-20İstanbulsporFatih KaragümrükSüper Lig1-2
2023-12-01Fatih KaragümrükİstanbulsporSüper Lig3-0
2023-08-06İstanbulsporFatih KaragümrükFriendlies Clubs0-1
2023-04-03İstanbulsporFatih KaragümrükSüper Lig0-1
2022-10-03Fatih KaragümrükİstanbulsporSüper Lig1-2
2022-03-27İstanbulsporFatih KaragümrükFriendlies Clubs3-3
2020-06-28Fatih Karagümrükİstanbulspor1. Lig1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

İstanbulspor vs Fatih Karagümrük odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.5%, draw 27.1%, away 40.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.75 3.44 2.25
Bet365 2.80 3.30 2.15
BetVictor 2.80 3.30 2.30
Betano 2.90 3.40 2.27
Betfair 2.75 3.30 2.20
Dafabet 2.85 3.50 2.25
Marathonbet 2.70 3.44 2.23
Pinnacle 2.77 3.69 2.30
SBO 2.61 3.00 2.20
Superbet 2.87 3.45 2.25
Unibet 2.80 3.15 2.28
William Hill 2.80 3.30 2.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.80 ▼ -0.05
X 3.35 ▲ +0.10
2 2.25 ▼ -0.09

8 snapshots recorded, from .