Garuda Lions
Today
1. Lig · Full time ·Matchday 5

Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor

1 – 1 Full time

28′F. HasaniM. Dulca
46′D. VerdeT. Cukur
46′M. UcarD. Radu
53′T. Seferi
57′C. KurukalipM. Sarikaya
57′R. YalcinC. Tosun
66′Manolis Siopis
66′Semih Güler
68′G. SaglamF. Ozer
69′B. KeserM. Camara
72′Atınç Nukan
79′T. SeferiT. Sariarslan
83′M. SiopisM. Doh
86′Talha Sariarslan
88′Mamadi Camara
90′Gökhan Değirmenci
90′D. Biraschi

Yusuf Ziya Öniş Stadium, IstanbulReferee: Ozan Ergun, Türkiye

Fatih Karagümrük 38%
Draw 29%
Kayserispor 33%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

11 Shots 11
4 Shots on target 4
47 Possession % 53
4 Corners 7
12 Fouls 15
0 Offsides 3
3 Saves 3
349 Accurate passes 400

Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFatih KaragümrükDrawKayserispor
Model44.0%31.9%24.1%
Market35.8%28.5%35.8%
Final37.8%29.3%32.8%
Edge+8.2%+3.4%-11.6%

Confidence: Low

Why Fatih Karagümrük

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.24 vs 0.85.
  • The market prices Fatih Karagümrük below the model: +8.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Fatih Karagümr ↓ / Kayserispor → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 14% 9% 1 14% 14% 2 10% 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 86%
2+ goals 63%
3+ goals 35%
No goals 14%

Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor expected goals

Fatih Karagümrük 1.24
Kayserispor 0.85

Total expected goals: 2.09

Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor attack and defence ratings

Fatih Karagümrük

Attack 0.84 -16%
Defence 0.81 -19%

Kayserispor

Attack 0.86 -14%
Defence 0.90 -10%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor: result vs prediction

Fatih Karagümrük 1 – 1 Kayserispor

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

1. Lig

Before and after this match

Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Fatih Karagümrük 37.8% 2.64 +8.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 65.2% 1.53 — —
Both teams to score No 58.0% 1.73 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 70.7% 1.42 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 56.0% 1.79 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Fatih Karagümrük37.8%
Draw29.3%
Kayserispor32.8%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.534.8%
Under 2.565.2%
Both teams to scoreYes42.0%
No58.0%
Double chance1X (home or draw)67.2%
12 (either side)70.7%
X2 (draw or away)62.2%
Handicap -1Fatih Karagümrük win20.3%
Push (exactly one goal)23.7%
Loss56.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.3%
1-014.0%
0-013.7%

Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor stats

Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor recent form

newest first
Fatih Karagümrük DWWLWW
Kayserispor LWWWWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Fatih Karagümrük and Kayserispor going into this match

league record before kick-off

Fatih Karagümrük record

  • They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

Kayserispor record

  • They have won 3 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.4 goals per match.
  • They have kept 3 clean sheets in 5 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Fatih Karagümrük wins 3Draws 2Kayserispor wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-19KayserisporFatih KaragümrükSüper Lig1-0
2025-10-24Fatih KaragümrükKayserisporSüper Lig2-2
2024-05-04KayserisporFatih KaragümrükSüper Lig2-2
2024-01-10Fatih KaragümrükKayserisporSüper Lig4-1
2023-05-30Fatih KaragümrükKayserisporSüper Lig2-0
2023-01-04KayserisporFatih KaragümrükSüper Lig2-4
2022-03-18Fatih KaragümrükKayserisporSüper Lig3-0
2021-10-31KayserisporFatih KaragümrükSüper Lig2-1
2021-03-19Fatih KaragümrükKayserisporSüper Lig3-0
2020-11-30KayserisporFatih KaragümrükSüper Lig0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 35.8%, draw 28.5%, away 35.8%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.50 3.25 2.55
1xBet 2.48 3.30 2.48
Bet365 2.55 3.00 2.55
BetVictor 2.55 3.20 2.55
Betano 2.57 3.20 2.62
Betfair 2.80 3.20 2.40
Dafabet 2.55 3.30 2.65
Marathonbet 2.48 3.30 2.48
Pinnacle 2.61 3.54 2.61
SBO 2.37 3.01 2.52
Superbet 2.55 3.20 2.67
Unibet 2.48 3.10 2.55
William Hill 2.50 3.30 2.50

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.55 ▲ +0.07
X 3.20 ▼ -0.15
2 2.55 —

9 snapshots recorded, from .