1. Lig · 2026-09-01T14:00:00Z UTC Full time ·Matchday 5

Ümraniyespor vs Muğlaspor

0 – 1 Full time

26′			M. Diarra
37′			Ali Kaan Güneren
43′			Andrej Đokanović
46′			A. DjokanovicS. Goksu
46′			K. SenA. Babacan
46′			A. GunerenS. Dilli
56′			Tomislav Glumac
56′			Ekrem Kılıçarslan
56′			Bilal Ceylan
64′			M. DiarraA. Engin
73′			S. HostikkaT. Ozdemir
75′			J. CelhakaB. Bulut
76′			B. YilmazO. Aydogan
86′			A. BlancoD. Aksoy
87′			D. AvramovskiO. Nahirci
87′			Y. UzunogluD. Camaj
90′			Cihan Topaloğlu
90′			Ahmet Engin

Ümraniye Belediyesi Sehir Stadi, IstanbulReferee: Mustafa Hakan Belder, Türkiye

Ümraniyespor

36%

Draw

32%

Muğlaspor

32%

Confidence: Low · blended with market odds

Match stats

15	Shots	5
3	Shots on target	2
66	Possession %	34
3	Corners	1
12	Fouls	12
1	Offsides	2
1	Saves	3
559	Accurate passes	245

Ümraniyespor vs Muğlaspor overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Ümraniyespor vs Muğlaspor

model vs market on the 1X2

Probability	Ümraniyespor	Draw	Muğlaspor
Model	36.3%	34.1%	29.6%
Market	36.5%	30.9%	32.6%
Final	36.4%	31.7%	31.8%
Edge	-0.2%	+3.1%	-3.0%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals

84%

2+ goals

59%

3+ goals

31%

No goals

16%

Ümraniyespor and Muğlaspor expected goals

Ümraniyespor

1.03

Muğlaspor

0.91

Total expected goals: 1.94

Ümraniyespor and Muğlaspor attack and defence ratings

Ümraniyespor

Attack

0.91 -9%

Defence

1.00 +0%

Muğlaspor

Attack

0.74 -26%

Defence

0.69 -31%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Ümraniyespor vs Muğlaspor: result vs prediction

Ümraniyespor 0 – 1 Muğlaspor

Market	Outcome
1X2 pick	✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick	✓ Correct
BTTS pick	✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

1. Lig

Bandırmaspor vs Antalyaspor · 2026-09-01
Boluspor vs Keçiörengücü — team news & stats · 2026-09-01
Sarıyer vs Pendikspor · 2026-09-01
Vanspor FK v Batman Petrolspor — match page · 2026-09-02
Sivasspor vs Mardin 1969 — team news & stats · 2026-09-02
Fatih Karagümrük vs Kayserispor · 2026-09-02
Iğdır FK v Manisa F.K. — match page · 2026-09-03
Bursaspor vs İstanbulspor — team news & stats · 2026-09-03

Before and after this match

Ümraniyespor, previous: Keçiörengücü – Ümraniyespor, 2026-08-28
Ümraniyespor, next: Pendikspor vs Ümraniyespor: odds and pick
Muğlaspor, previous: Muğlaspor vs Boluspor prediction
Muğlaspor, next: Muğlaspor vs Vanspor FK prediction

Ümraniyespor vs Muğlaspor markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market

Market	Model pick	Probability	Fair odds	Edge	Best price
1X2	Ümraniyespor	36.4%	2.74	-0.2%	—
Over/Under 2.5	Under 2.5	69.4%	1.44	—	—
Both teams to score	No	60.3%	1.66	—	—
Double chance	12 (either side)	68.3%	1.46	—	—
Handicap -1	Loss	63.7%	1.57	—	—

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid

Market	Selection	Probability
1X2	Ümraniyespor	36.4%
	Draw	31.7%
	Muğlaspor	31.8%
Over/Under 2.5	Over 2.5	30.6%
	Under 2.5	69.4%
Both teams to score	Yes	39.7%
	No	60.3%
Double chance	1X (home or draw)	68.2%
	12 (either side)	68.3%
	X2 (draw or away)	63.6%
Handicap -1	Ümraniyespor win	14.6%
	Push (exactly one goal)	21.6%
	Loss	63.7%
Correct score (top 3)	0-0	15.8%
	1-1	14.8%
	1-0	13.5%

Ümraniyespor vs Muğlaspor stats

Ümraniyespor and Muğlaspor recent form

newest first

Ümraniyespor	DDLDLW
Muğlaspor	WDDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Ümraniyespor and Muğlaspor going into this match

league record before kick-off

Ümraniyespor record

They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.

Muğlaspor record

They have won 2 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 0.6 goals per match.
They have kept 4 clean sheets in 5 matches.
They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.

Ümraniyespor vs Muğlaspor head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Ümraniyespor vs Muğlaspor odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 36.5%, draw 30.9%, away 32.6%.

Bookmaker	1	X	2
10Bet	2.45	2.95	2.80
1xBet	2.51	2.88	2.74
Bet365	2.45	2.88	2.80
BetVictor	2.55	2.90	2.80
Betano	2.52	3.00	2.87
Betfair	2.45	3.00	2.75
Dafabet	2.50	3.05	2.90
Marathonbet	2.48	2.97	2.70
Pinnacle	2.59	3.23	2.83
SBO	2.39	2.77	2.69
Superbet	2.50	3.00	2.87
Unibet	2.48	2.90	2.70
William Hill	2.50	2.90	2.80

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.50 ▲ +0.29

X 2.95 ▼ -0.35

2 2.80 ▼ -0.29

6 snapshots recorded, from 2026-08-27T08:10:03Z.