Garuda Lions
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1. Lig · Full time ·Matchday 3

Vanspor FK vs İstanbulspor

3 – 2 Full time

Spor Toto Akhisar Stadium, AkhisarReferee: Davut Dakul Celik, Türkiye

Vanspor FK 27%
Draw 26%
İstanbulspor 47%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Vanspor FK vs İstanbulspor overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Vanspor FK vs İstanbulspor

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityVanspor FKDrawİstanbulspor
Model26.6%22.6%50.8%
Market26.6%27.2%46.3%
Final26.6%26.0%47.4%
Edge+0.0%-4.5%+4.5%

Confidence: Low

Why İstanbulspor

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.12 vs 1.50.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices İstanbulspor below the model: +4.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Vanspor FK ↓ / İstanbulspor → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 5% 6% 1 9% 9% 6% 6% 2 6% 7% 5% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 89%
3+ goals 70%
No goals 4%

Vanspor FK and İstanbulspor expected goals

Vanspor FK 1.50
İstanbulspor 2.12

Total expected goals: 3.62

Vanspor FK and İstanbulspor attack and defence ratings

Vanspor FK

Attack 0.82 -18%
Defence 1.30 +30%

İstanbulspor

Attack 1.33 +33%
Defence 1.10 +10%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Vanspor FK vs İstanbulspor: result vs prediction

Vanspor FK 3 – 2 İstanbulspor

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

1. Lig

Before and after this match

Vanspor FK vs İstanbulspor markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 İstanbulspor 47.4% 2.11 +4.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 70.1% 1.43 — —
Both teams to score Yes 69.3% 1.44 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.0% 1.35 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 49.0% 2.04 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Vanspor FK26.6%
Draw26.0%
İstanbulspor47.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.570.1%
Under 2.529.9%
Both teams to scoreYes69.3%
No30.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)52.6%
12 (either side)74.0%
X2 (draw or away)73.4%
Handicap -1İstanbulspor win30.9%
Push (exactly one goal)20.1%
Loss49.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-19.4%
1-29.0%
2-26.8%

Vanspor FK vs İstanbulspor stats

Vanspor FK and İstanbulspor recent form

newest first
Vanspor FK LLLLWL
İstanbulspor DLWWWW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Vanspor FK and İstanbulspor going into this match

league record before kick-off

Vanspor FK record

  • They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.

İstanbulspor record

  • They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.

Vanspor FK vs İstanbulspor head-to-head

Last 2 meetings

1Vanspor FK wins 0Draws 1İstanbulspor wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-04-25Vanspor FKİstanbulspor1. Lig1-3
2025-12-21İstanbulsporVanspor FK1. Lig1-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Vanspor FK vs İstanbulspor odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 26.7%, draw 27.1%, away 46.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 3.52 3.22 1.98
888Sport 3.10 3.20 2.20
Bet365 3.60 3.40 1.83
BetVictor 3.60 3.40 1.93
Betano 3.45 3.40 2.02
Betfair 3.40 3.40 1.91
Dafabet 3.50 3.45 2.03
Marathonbet 3.45 3.22 1.96
Pinnacle 3.68 3.45 2.04
SBO 3.04 3.13 1.99
Superbet 3.35 3.45 2.02
Unibet 3.15 3.05 2.08
William Hill 3.50 3.20 2.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.48 ▲ +0.27
X 3.40 —
2 2.00 ▼ -0.10

4 snapshots recorded, from .