Garuda Lions
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Süper Lig · Full time ·Matchday 5

Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa

1 – 2 Full time

23′O. Diabate
46′E. BozM. Rafferty
46′A. KarapoJ. Jessen
47′E. Mendes
54′O. Diabate
55′M. Diyadin
61′J. Rak-SakyiG. Yalcin
68′F. TongyaR. Luis
77′Thalisson Kelven
77′K. DemirbayT. Diarra
77′A. TraoreF. Uzum
77′P. MendesS. Koita
79′A. Benedyczak
82′T. Gouveia
83′C. Winck
85′Thalisson KelvenM. Baltaci
85′O. UlgunS. Ucan
89′M. IlieA. Arous
90′G. Yalcin
90′G. Yalcin

Eryaman Stadyumu, AnkaraReferee: Yasin Kol, Türkiye

Gençlerbirliği S.K. 39%
Draw 29%
Kasımpaşa 32%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

15 Shots 13
5 Shots on target 2
43 Possession % 57
8 Corners 8
16 Fouls 13
0 Offsides 1
1 Saves 4
231 Accurate passes 332

Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityGençlerbirliği S.K.DrawKasımpaşa
Model32.4%30.0%37.6%
Market40.7%29.2%30.1%
Final38.6%29.4%32.0%
Edge-8.4%+0.9%+7.5%

Confidence: Low

Why Gençlerbirliği S.K.

  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Gençlerbirliği ↓ / Kasımpaşa → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 10% 10% 1 9% 14% 8% 2 8% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 90%
2+ goals 71%
3+ goals 44%
No goals 10%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Kasımpaşa expected goals

Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1.16
Kasımpaşa 1.27

Total expected goals: 2.43

Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Kasımpaşa attack and defence ratings

Gençlerbirliği S.K.

Attack 0.80 -20%
Defence 1.09 +9%

Kasımpaşa

Attack 0.95 -5%
Defence 0.99 -1%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa: result vs prediction

Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1 – 2 Kasımpaşa

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Süper Lig

Before and after this match

Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Gençlerbirliği S.K. 38.6% 2.59 -8.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 56.2% 1.78 — —
Both teams to score Yes 50.6% 1.98 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 70.6% 1.42 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 67.6% 1.48 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Gençlerbirliği S.K.38.6%
Draw29.4%
Kasımpaşa32.0%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.543.8%
Under 2.556.2%
Both teams to scoreYes50.6%
No49.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)68.0%
12 (either side)70.6%
X2 (draw or away)61.4%
Handicap -1Gençlerbirliği S.K. win13.8%
Push (exactly one goal)18.5%
Loss67.6%
Correct score (top 3)1-114.3%
0-010.1%
0-19.9%

Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa stats

Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Kasımpaşa recent form

newest first
Gençlerbirliği S.K. LDWWWW
Kasımpaşa DDWDWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

3Gençlerbirliği S.K. wins 2Draws 5Kasımpaşa wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-07-24KasımpaşaGençlerbirliği S.K.Friendlies Clubs3-0
2026-05-09Gençlerbirliği S.K.KasımpaşaSüper Lig3-2
2025-12-12KasımpaşaGençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig0-0
2024-12-19Gençlerbirliği S.K.KasımpaşaTürkiye Kupası0-1
2021-03-20Gençlerbirliği S.K.KasımpaşaSüper Lig2-1
2020-11-29KasımpaşaGençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig2-0
2020-06-29Gençlerbirliği S.K.KasımpaşaSüper Lig0-2
2019-11-24KasımpaşaGençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig1-2
2018-05-12KasımpaşaGençlerbirliği S.K.Süper Lig3-1
2017-12-16Gençlerbirliği S.K.KasımpaşaSüper Lig0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 40.7%, draw 29.2%, away 30.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.12 3.50 3.20
1xBet 2.38 3.26 3.28
Bet365 2.30 3.20 3.00
BetVictor 2.25 3.20 3.00
Betano 2.32 3.15 3.15
Betfair 2.25 3.30 3.00
Dafabet 2.29 3.25 3.10
Marathonbet 2.29 3.14 3.15
Pinnacle 2.37 3.23 3.31
SBO 2.10 3.00 2.93
Unibet 2.38 3.20 3.00
William Hill 2.25 3.10 3.10

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.29 ▼ -0.03
X 3.20 —
2 3.10 ▲ +0.06

13 snapshots recorded, from .