Garuda Lions
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Süper Lig · Full time ·Matchday 4

Kasımpaşa vs Amed

2 – 2 Full time

20′G. Yalcin
46′G. GulF. Soyalp
46′M. DiagneG. Orban
52′A. Benedyczak
58′Dia Saba
59′G. Orban
66′S. BalletR. Lutin
67′M. RaffertyE. Mendes
72′A. BaldurssonE. Boz
76′Kerem Demirbay
77′A. CisseM. Khalil
82′K. DemirbayA. Mujde
82′A. BenedyczakJ. Rak-Sakyi
83′G. Orban
86′D. SabaM. Yesil
90′Ali Yavuz Kol
90′Güven Yalçın
90′Emirhan Boz
90′Jesurun Rak-Sakyi
90′David Robert Bates

Recep Tayyip Erdogan Stadium, IstanbulReferee: Oguzhan Cakir, Türkiye

Kasımpaşa 35%
Draw 29%
Amed 36%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

14 Shots 14
7 Shots on target 4
44 Possession % 56
2 Corners 9
15 Fouls 10
1 Offsides 3
2 Saves 5
317 Accurate passes 420

Kasımpaşa vs Amed overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Kasımpaşa vs Amed

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityKasımpaşaDrawAmed
Model27.7%27.6%44.8%
Market37.8%29.6%32.7%
Final35.2%29.1%35.7%
Edge-10.1%-2.0%+12.1%

Confidence: Low

Why Amed

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.55 vs 1.17.
  • The market prices Amed below the model: +12.1 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Kasımpaşa ↓ / Amed → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 8% 9% 8% 1 13% 9% 2 7% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 92%
2+ goals 77%
3+ goals 51%
No goals 8%

Kasımpaşa and Amed expected goals

Kasımpaşa 1.17
Amed 1.55

Total expected goals: 2.72

Kasımpaşa and Amed attack and defence ratings

Kasımpaşa

Attack 0.89 -11%
Defence 0.94 -6%

Amed

Attack 1.35 +35%
Defence 0.91 -9%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Kasımpaşa vs Amed: result vs prediction

Kasımpaşa 2 – 2 Amed

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Süper Lig

Before and after this match

Kasımpaşa vs Amed markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Amed 35.7% 2.80 +12.1% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 51.1% 1.96 — —
Both teams to score Yes 55.6% 1.80 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 70.9% 1.41 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 55.2% 1.81 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Kasımpaşa35.2%
Draw29.1%
Amed35.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.551.1%
Under 2.548.9%
Both teams to scoreYes55.6%
No44.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)64.3%
12 (either side)70.9%
X2 (draw or away)64.8%
Handicap -1Amed win23.3%
Push (exactly one goal)21.5%
Loss55.2%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.1%
1-29.2%
0-19.0%

Kasımpaşa vs Amed stats

Kasımpaşa and Amed recent form

newest first
Kasımpaşa DWDWLD
Amed WLWDDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Kasımpaşa vs Amed head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Kasımpaşa vs Amed odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 41.3%, draw 28.5%, away 30.2%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.12 3.35 3.30
1xBet 2.58 3.25 2.98
Bet365 2.50 3.25 2.70
BetVictor 2.45 3.13 2.75
Betano 2.20 3.25 3.25
Betfair 2.10 3.30 3.30
Dafabet 2.24 3.35 3.30
Marathonbet 2.48 3.12 2.86
Pinnacle 2.60 3.23 2.95
SBO 2.09 3.07 3.06
Superbet 2.22 3.30 3.25
Unibet 2.14 3.25 3.45
William Hill 2.40 3.00 2.90

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.49 ▲ +0.34
X 3.18 ▼ -0.12
2 2.88 ▼ -0.32

12 snapshots recorded, from .