Başakşehir
vs
Kasımpaşa
1 – 1 Full time
| 3′ | Jerome Opoku | ||
| 13′ | Olivier Kemen | ||
| 18′ | E. Shomurodov | ||
| 46′ | A. FayzullaevY. Sari | ||
| 46′ | A. DagbasiF. Diabate | ||
| 46′ | G. YalcinA. Kol | ||
| 55′ | Cláudio Winck | ||
| 64′ | O. KemenO. Ergun | ||
| 71′ | E. MendesM. Rafferty | ||
| 73′ | U. BozokD. Selke | ||
| 74′ | A. Skov OlsenH. Gureler | ||
| 81′ | F. Diabate | ||
| 87′ | A. KarapoE. Boz | ||
| 90′ | Hamza Güreler |
Match stats
| 12 | Shots | 12 |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Shots on target | 3 |
| 64 | Possession % | 36 |
| 5 | Corners | 3 |
| 11 | Fouls | 13 |
| 2 | Offsides | 3 |
| 2 | Saves | 1 |
| 562 | Accurate passes | 278 |
Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa
| Probability | Başakşehir | Draw | Kasımpaşa |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 49.5% | 28.3% | 22.2% |
| Market | 57.8% | 23.6% | 18.6% |
| Final | 55.7% | 24.8% | 19.5% |
| Edge | -8.3% | +4.8% | +3.6% |
Why Başakşehir
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.51 vs 0.94.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.45
Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa attack and defence ratings
Başakşehir
Kasımpaşa
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa: result vs prediction
Başakşehir 1 – 1 Kasımpaşa
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✓ Correct |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
Before and after this match
Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Başakşehir | 55.7% | 1.79 | -8.3% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 55.4% | 1.80 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 51.2% | 1.95 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.5% | 1.24 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 50.7% | 1.97 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Başakşehir | 55.7% |
| Draw | 24.8% | |
| Kasımpaşa | 19.5% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 44.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 55.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 48.8% |
| No | 51.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 80.5% |
| 12 (either side) | 75.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 44.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Başakşehir win | 25.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.5% | |
| Loss | 50.7% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.4% |
| 1-0 | 11.8% | |
| 2-0 | 9.9% |
Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa stats
Başakşehir and Kasımpaşa recent form
| Başakşehir |
LWLDWW |
| Kasımpaşa |
WDWLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-24 | Başakşehir | Kasımpaşa | Süper Lig | 4-0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Kasımpaşa | Başakşehir | Süper Lig | 1-3 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Başakşehir vs Kasımpaşa odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 57.8%, draw 23.6%, away 18.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.63 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| 1xBet | 1.65 | 4.16 | 5.40 |
| Bet365 | 1.60 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| BetVictor | 1.57 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 3.90 | 5.00 |
| Betfair | 1.60 | 4.00 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.63 | 4.10 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.59 | 4.00 | 5.20 |
| Pinnacle | 1.62 | 4.09 | 5.17 |
| SBO | 1.54 | 3.59 | 4.62 |
| Unibet | 1.58 | 4.10 | 5.25 |
| William Hill | 1.62 | 3.80 | 4.80 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .