Kudrivka
vs
Chornomorets
Garuda Lions Prediction: Chornomorets
1 – 2 Predicted score · 10% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.07.
- RiskGrade C: weaker evidence — both clubs are rated on goals scored and conceded, not on the chances they created.
Kudrivka vs Chornomorets overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Kudrivka vs Chornomorets
| Probability | Kudrivka | Draw | Chornomorets |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 20.0% | 24.4% | 55.6% |
| Market | 36.0% | 28.4% | 35.6% |
| Final | 32.0% | 27.4% | 40.6% |
| Edge | -4.0% | -1.0% | +5.0% |
Why Chornomorets
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.89 vs 1.07.
- The market prices Chornomorets below our published probability: +5.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.68, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: +8.8% per unit staked (our 40.6% × 2.68 − 1).
Kudrivka vs Chornomorets match preview
Kudrivka faces Chornomorets in the Ukraine Premier League with a predicted outcome leaning slightly towards the visitors. Kudrivka has a 36% chance of winning, while Chornomorets holds a 38% probability. The most likely scoreline from the model suggests a 1-2 victory for Chornomorets, which aligns with their expected goals of 1.90 compared to Kudrivka's 1.06.
Both teams show a tendency for goals, with a 57% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a similar probability for both teams to score. Kudrivka's recent form has been challenging, with five losses in their last six matches, while Chornomorets has experienced mixed results, including a recent win and a draw. The confidence grade for this match is C, indicating moderate uncertainty in the predictions.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Kudrivka and Chornomorets expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.96
Kudrivka and Chornomorets attack and defence ratings
Kudrivka
Chornomorets
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Kudrivka vs Chornomorets markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Chornomorets | 40.6% | 2.46 | +5.0% | 2.68 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.8% | 1.76 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 72.6% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 44.4% | 2.25 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Kudrivka | 32.0% |
| Draw | 27.4% | |
| Chornomorets | 40.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 56.8% |
| Under 2.5 | 43.2% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 56.8% |
| No | 43.2% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 59.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.6% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 68.0% | |
| Handicap -1 | Chornomorets win | 33.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 22.6% | |
| Loss | 44.4% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.5% |
| 1-2 | 9.9% | |
| 0-2 | 9.3% |
Kudrivka vs Chornomorets stats
Kudrivka and Chornomorets recent form
| Kudrivka |
LLWLLL |
| Chornomorets |
WDLLDL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Kudrivka and Chornomorets season so far
Kudrivka record
- They have won 1 of their 11 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
- They average 1.5 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 11 matches.
Chornomorets record
- They have won 2 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
- They have kept 3 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 10 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Kudrivka vs Chornomorets head-to-head
No recent meetings on record
Kudrivka vs Chornomorets odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 36.0%, draw 28.4%, away 35.6%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.65 | 3.37 | 2.65 |
| Bet365 | 2.40 | 3.25 | 2.50 |
| Betano | 2.60 | 3.20 | 2.55 |
| Betfair | 2.45 | 3.25 | 2.55 |
| Dafabet | 2.60 | 3.35 | 2.60 |
| Marathonbet | 2.54 | 3.12 | 2.68 |
| Pinnacle | 2.61 | 3.31 | 2.59 |
| William Hill | 2.50 | 3.10 | 2.62 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
10 snapshots recorded, from .