Shakhtar Donetsk
vs
Dynamo Kyiv
Garuda Lions Prediction: Shakhtar Donetsk
1 – 0 Predicted score · 15% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.23 vs 0.80.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Shakhtar Donetsk is the favourite, not a value bet.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kyiv overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kyiv
| Probability | Shakhtar Donetsk | Draw | Dynamo Kyiv |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 45.0% | 32.2% | 22.8% |
| Market | 50.5% | 26.9% | 22.5% |
| Final | 49.2% | 28.2% | 22.6% |
| Edge | -1.4% | +1.3% | +0.1% |
Why Shakhtar Donetsk
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.23 vs 0.80.
Best available price on the pick: 1.87, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -8.1% per unit staked (our 49.2% × 1.87 − 1).
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kyiv match preview
Shakhtar Donetsk is set to face Dynamo Kyiv in the Ukraine Premier League, with kickoff scheduled for November 8, 2026. According to our model, Shakhtar Donetsk has a 57% probability of winning, while Dynamo Kyiv stands at 18%. The expected goals for Shakhtar Donetsk is 1.33, compared to 0.77 for Dynamo Kyiv, suggesting a potential edge for the home side. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 1-0, occurring with a 15% probability.
In terms of recent form, Shakhtar Donetsk has recorded three wins and a draw in their last six matches, while Dynamo Kyiv has also performed well with five wins in their last six outings. The head-to-head record favors Shakhtar Donetsk, who has won both of the last two encounters against Dynamo Kyiv. The confidence grade for this matchup is rated at C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Shakhtar Donetsk and Dynamo Kyiv expected goals
Total expected goals: 2.03
Shakhtar Donetsk and Dynamo Kyiv attack and defence ratings
Shakhtar Donetsk
Dynamo Kyiv
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 12 fixtures
Before and after this match
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kyiv markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 49.2% | 2.03 | -1.4% | 1.87 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 66.7% | 1.50 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 59.6% | 1.68 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.4% | 1.29 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 55.0% | 1.82 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Shakhtar Donetsk | 49.2% |
| Draw | 28.2% | |
| Dynamo Kyiv | 22.6% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 33.3% |
| Under 2.5 | 66.7% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 40.4% |
| No | 59.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 77.4% |
| 12 (either side) | 71.8% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 50.8% | |
| Handicap -1 | Shakhtar Donetsk win | 20.8% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 24.2% | |
| Loss | 55.0% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-0 | 14.8% |
| 0-0 | 14.4% | |
| 1-1 | 14.2% |
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kyiv stats
Shakhtar Donetsk and Dynamo Kyiv recent form
| Shakhtar Donetsk |
LWDLWW |
| Dynamo Kyiv |
WWLWWW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Shakhtar Donetsk and Dynamo Kyiv season so far
Shakhtar Donetsk record
- They have won 8 of their 10 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They have kept 6 clean sheets in 10 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 5 matches.
Dynamo Kyiv record
- They have won 6 of their 9 league games this season, scoring 1.6 goals per match.
- They average 1.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
- They have kept 4 clean sheets in 9 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kyiv head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-03 | Dynamo Kyiv | Shakhtar Donetsk | Ukraine Premier League | 1-2 |
| 2025-11-02 | Shakhtar Donetsk | Dynamo Kyiv | Ukraine Premier League | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Shakhtar Donetsk vs Dynamo Kyiv odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 50.5%, draw 26.9%, away 22.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.87 | 3.53 | 4.32 |
| Bet365 | 1.80 | 3.30 | 3.90 |
| Betano | 1.87 | 3.30 | 3.95 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 3.30 | 4.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.85 | 3.40 | 4.10 |
| Marathonbet | 1.80 | 3.38 | 4.25 |
| Pinnacle | 1.81 | 3.39 | 4.49 |
| William Hill | 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
16 snapshots recorded, from .