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United Arab Emirates Pro League · Full time ·Matchday 5

Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba

2 – 3 Full time

25′Benjamin Tetteh
32′Saman Ghoddos
42′Carlos Alberto
45′Walid Azarou
51′Lourency do Nascimento Rodrigues
56′Victor Henrique Cardoso SantosLithierry da Silva Neves
56′Saad El HadaniSékou Baba Gassama
58′Walid Azarou
64′Carlos AlbertoAhmed Shehda Abunamous
64′Ali Hassan SalminAntônio Fialho de Carvalho Neto
65′Ismail MoumenVictor Hugo Ramos de Souza
67′Marwan Fahad HamzaWaleed Rashid
67′Antônio Fialho de Carvalho Neto
81′Lithierry da Silva Neves
84′JobsonMohammad Juma Eid
86′Alejandro Vergaz Yousif Ali Almheiri
86′Koray GünterRejan Alivoda

Ajman Stadium, AjmanReferee: A. Rashid

Ajman 45%
Draw 25%
Al-Ittihad Kalba 29%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

10 Shots 7
5 Shots on target 4
52 Possession % 48
3 Corners 1
14 Fouls 10
3 Offsides 6
1 Saves 3
335 Accurate passes 309

Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityAjmanDrawAl-Ittihad Kalba
Model62.2%20.3%17.5%
Market39.6%26.9%33.4%
Final45.3%25.3%29.4%
Edge+22.6%-6.7%-15.9%

Confidence: Low

Why Ajman

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.38 vs 1.22.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Ajman below the model: +22.6 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Ajman ↓ / Al-Ittihad Kal → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 6% 9% 5% 2 8% 9% 6% 3 6% 7% 4+ 6% 8% 5%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 88%
3+ goals 70%
No goals 4%

Ajman and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected goals

Ajman 2.38
Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.22

Total expected goals: 3.60

Ajman and Al-Ittihad Kalba attack and defence ratings

Ajman

Attack 1.14 +14%
Defence 1.14 +14%

Al-Ittihad Kalba

Attack 0.75 -25%
Defence 1.41 +41%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba: result vs prediction

Ajman 2 – 3 Al-Ittihad Kalba

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✗ Incorrect
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

United Arab Emirates Pro League

Before and after this match

Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Ajman 45.3% 2.21 +22.6% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 69.7% 1.43 — —
Both teams to score Yes 64.8% 1.54 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.7% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Ajman win 41.2% 2.42 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Ajman45.3%
Draw25.3%
Al-Ittihad Kalba29.4%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.569.7%
Under 2.530.3%
Both teams to scoreYes64.8%
No35.2%
Double chance1X (home or draw)70.6%
12 (either side)74.7%
X2 (draw or away)54.7%
Handicap -1Ajman win41.2%
Push (exactly one goal)21.0%
Loss37.8%
Correct score (top 3)2-19.4%
1-18.7%
2-07.7%

Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba stats

Ajman and Al-Ittihad Kalba recent form

newest first
Ajman WLWWDW
Al-Ittihad Kalba LLLDLL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

5Ajman wins 0Draws 5Al-Ittihad Kalba wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-07Al-Ittihad KalbaAjmanUnited Arab Emirates Pro League1-3
2026-01-03AjmanAl-Ittihad KalbaUnited Arab Emirates Pro League0-1
2025-05-13AjmanAl-Ittihad KalbaPro League2-3
2025-01-05Al-Ittihad KalbaAjmanPro League3-2
2024-03-29Al-Ittihad KalbaAjmanPro League2-4
2023-09-29AjmanAl-Ittihad KalbaPro League3-5
2023-04-19Al-Ittihad KalbaAjmanPro League0-2
2022-11-12AjmanAl-Ittihad KalbaPro League1-0
2022-03-25Al-Ittihad KalbaAjmanLeague Cup1-0
2022-02-19AjmanAl-Ittihad KalbaPro League4-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Ajman vs Al-Ittihad Kalba odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 42.2%, draw 26.8%, away 31.1%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.06 3.50 3.10
1xBet 2.29 3.35 2.74
888Sport 2.05 3.25 3.10
Bet365 2.25 3.40 2.80
BetVictor 2.30 3.40 2.70
Betano 2.10 3.45 3.20
Betfair 2.00 3.60 3.10
Dafabet 2.06 3.55 3.20
Marathonbet 2.27 3.35 2.69
Pinnacle 2.43 3.56 2.80
Superbet 2.07 3.55 3.20
William Hill 2.30 3.25 2.70

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.29 ▲ +0.36
X 3.38 ▼ -0.12
2 2.72 ▼ -0.69

10 snapshots recorded, from .