Al-Dhafra
vs
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Garuda Lions Prediction: Al-Ittihad Kalba
1 – 2 Predicted score · 7% model probability
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Al-Ittihad Kalba is the favourite, not a value bet.
Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba
| Probability | Al-Dhafra | Draw | Al-Ittihad Kalba |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 44.5% | 25.1% | 30.4% |
| Market | 32.6% | 25.8% | 41.5% |
| Final | 35.6% | 25.6% | 38.8% |
| Edge | +3.0% | -0.2% | -2.8% |
Best available price on the pick: 2.30, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -10.8% per unit staked (our 38.8% × 2.30 − 1).
Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba match preview
Al-Dhafra faces Al-Ittihad Kalba in the United Arab Emirates Pro League, with the probabilities indicating a close contest. Al-Dhafra has a 36% chance of winning, while Al-Ittihad Kalba is slightly favored at 39%. The most likely scoreline predicted by the model is 1-2, occurring with a 7% probability. The expectation for goals is relatively high, with Al-Dhafra projected to score 1.77 and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.44, contributing to a 62% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance that both teams will score.
Recent form shows Al-Dhafra with two wins followed by four losses, while Al-Ittihad Kalba has recorded two draws among their last six matches. In their last nine encounters, Al-Dhafra has one win compared to Al-Ittihad Kalba's four, alongside four draws. The overall confidence grade for this matchup is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.21
Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba attack and defence ratings
Al-Dhafra
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | 38.8% | 2.58 | -2.8% | 2.30 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.2% | 1.61 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.4% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.4% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 69.6% | 1.44 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al-Dhafra | 35.6% |
| Draw | 25.6% | |
| Al-Ittihad Kalba | 38.8% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.2% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.8% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.4% |
| No | 35.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 61.2% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.4% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 64.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al-Ittihad Kalba win | 14.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 16.1% | |
| Loss | 69.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.3% |
| 2-1 | 9.1% | |
| 1-2 | 7.4% |
Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba stats
Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba recent form
| Al-Dhafra |
WWLLLL |
| Al-Ittihad Kalba |
DWLLLD |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al-Dhafra and Al-Ittihad Kalba season so far
Al-Dhafra record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game at home against 0.7 on the road.
- They have failed to score in 3 of 6 matches.
Al-Ittihad Kalba record
- They have won 1 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They average 2.0 goals per game on the road against 0.7 at home.
- 42% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba head-to-head
Last 9 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-26 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | Al-Dhafra | United Arab Emirates Pro League | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-01 | Al-Dhafra | Al-Ittihad Kalba | United Arab Emirates Pro League | 3-0 |
| 2023-02-10 | Al-Dhafra | Al-Ittihad Kalba | Pro League | 0-2 |
| 2022-09-16 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | Al-Dhafra | Pro League | 2-0 |
| 2022-03-11 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | Al-Dhafra | Pro League | 2-2 |
| 2021-09-28 | Al-Dhafra | Al-Ittihad Kalba | Pro League | 1-1 |
| 2021-03-12 | Al-Ittihad Kalba | Al-Dhafra | Pro League | 2-1 |
| 2020-11-27 | Al-Dhafra | Al-Ittihad Kalba | Pro League | 1-2 |
| 2019-12-15 | Al-Dhafra | Al-Ittihad Kalba | Pro League | 1-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Al-Dhafra vs Al-Ittihad Kalba odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 32.6%, draw 25.8%, away 41.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.81 | 3.54 | 2.14 |
| Bet365 | 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| BetVictor | 2.80 | 3.50 | 2.25 |
| Betano | 2.85 | 3.60 | 2.20 |
| Betfair | 2.80 | 3.60 | 2.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.85 | 3.70 | 2.19 |
| Marathonbet | 2.75 | 3.54 | 2.12 |
| Pinnacle | 2.82 | 3.92 | 2.27 |
| William Hill | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.20 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
13 snapshots recorded, from .