Al Nasr
vs
Dubai United
Garuda Lions Prediction: Al Nasr
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.41 vs 1.55.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Al Nasr is the favourite, not a value bet.
Al Nasr vs Dubai United overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Al Nasr vs Dubai United
| Probability | Al Nasr | Draw | Dubai United |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.1% | 20.6% | 23.3% |
| Market | 58.0% | 22.2% | 19.8% |
| Final | 57.5% | 21.8% | 20.7% |
| Edge | -0.5% | -0.4% | +0.9% |
Why Al Nasr
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.41 vs 1.55.
Best available price on the pick: 1.62, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -6.8% per unit staked (our 57.5% × 1.62 − 1).
Al Nasr vs Dubai United match preview
In the upcoming match between Al Nasr and Dubai United, Al Nasr holds a probability of 56% to win, while Dubai United is at 23%. The most likely scoreline predicted by our model is 2-1 in favor of Al Nasr, with a 9% likelihood. The expectation for total goals is high, with over 2.5 goals projected at 76% and both teams scoring at 72%.
Recent form shows Al Nasr with a record of W-D-L-L-W-D, indicating some inconsistency, while Dubai United has a record of L-D-L-W-W-L, suggesting they are also struggling to find form. The expected goals for Al Nasr stand at 2.41, compared to 1.55 for Dubai United, reflecting a stronger offensive outlook for the home side.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Al Nasr and Dubai United expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.96
Al Nasr and Dubai United attack and defence ratings
Al Nasr
Dubai United
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Al Nasr vs Dubai United markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Nasr | 57.5% | 1.74 | -0.5% | 1.62 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.6% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.3% | 1.38 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.3% | 1.26 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.9% | 2.28 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Al Nasr | 57.5% |
| Draw | 21.8% | |
| Dubai United | 20.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 75.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 24.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 72.3% |
| No | 27.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 79.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.2% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 42.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Al Nasr win | 36.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.8% | |
| Loss | 43.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.6% |
| 1-1 | 7.8% | |
| 3-1 | 6.9% |
Al Nasr vs Dubai United stats
Al Nasr and Dubai United recent form
| Al Nasr |
WDLLWD |
| Dubai United |
LDLWWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Al Nasr and Dubai United season so far
Al Nasr record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
Dubai United record
- They have won 2 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.2 goals per match.
Al Nasr vs Dubai United head-to-head
Last 1 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-20 | Al Nasr | Dubai United | League Cup | 3-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Al Nasr vs Dubai United odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 58.0%, draw 22.2%, away 19.8%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.55 | 4.10 | 4.63 |
| Bet365 | 1.57 | 4.00 | 4.33 |
| BetVictor | 1.57 | 4.10 | 4.75 |
| Betano | 1.62 | 4.15 | 4.50 |
| Betfair | 1.53 | 4.20 | 4.60 |
| Dafabet | 1.59 | 4.30 | 4.60 |
| Marathonbet | 1.53 | 4.10 | 4.55 |
| Pinnacle | 1.60 | 4.35 | 4.76 |
| William Hill | 1.57 | 3.90 | 4.50 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .