Ajman
vs
Baniyas SC
Garuda Lions Prediction: Ajman
2 – 1 Predicted score · 9% model probability
- WhyHigher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.40.
- RiskNo edge: the market already prices this — Ajman is the favourite, not a value bet.
Ajman vs Baniyas SC overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Ajman vs Baniyas SC
| Probability | Ajman | Draw | Baniyas SC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 46.5% | 24.8% | 28.6% |
| Market | 45.4% | 25.2% | 29.3% |
| Final | 45.7% | 25.1% | 29.1% |
| Edge | +0.3% | -0.1% | -0.2% |
Why Ajman
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.83 vs 1.40.
- Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
Best available price on the pick: 2.07, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -5.4% per unit staked (our 45.7% × 2.07 − 1).
Ajman vs Baniyas SC match preview
Ajman faces Baniyas SC in the United Arab Emirates Pro League with a forecasted probability of 47% for an Ajman victory, while Baniyas SC has a 29% chance of winning and a 25% probability of a draw. The model suggests a likely scoreline of 2-1 in favor of Ajman, with an expected goals tally of 1.83 for Ajman and 1.40 for Baniyas SC.
Recent form shows Ajman with two wins in their last five matches, while Baniyas SC has struggled, recording six consecutive games without a win, including five losses. The model indicates a 63% likelihood of over 2.5 goals and a 64% chance that both teams will score, reflecting a potentially competitive match.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Ajman and Baniyas SC expected goals
Total expected goals: 3.23
Ajman and Baniyas SC attack and defence ratings
Ajman
Baniyas SC
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
Before and after this match
Ajman vs Baniyas SC markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ajman | 45.7% | 2.19 | +0.3% | 2.07 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.6% | 1.60 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.3% | 1.56 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 74.9% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 53.5% | 1.87 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Ajman | 45.7% |
| Draw | 25.1% | |
| Baniyas SC | 29.1% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 62.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 37.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 64.3% |
| No | 35.7% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 70.9% |
| 12 (either side) | 74.9% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 54.3% | |
| Handicap -1 | Ajman win | 26.1% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.4% | |
| Loss | 53.5% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 11.2% |
| 2-1 | 9.3% | |
| 1-2 | 7.1% |
Ajman vs Baniyas SC stats
Ajman and Baniyas SC recent form
| Ajman |
LLWLWW |
| Baniyas SC |
LDLLLL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Ajman and Baniyas SC season so far
Ajman record
- They have won 3 of their 6 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.3 goals per game at home against 1.7 on the road.
- 40% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Baniyas SC record
- They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
Ajman vs Baniyas SC head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-18 | Ajman | Baniyas SC | United Arab Emirates Pro League | 1-1 |
| 2025-09-26 | Baniyas SC | Ajman | United Arab Emirates Pro League | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Ajman vs Baniyas SC odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 45.4%, draw 25.2%, away 29.3%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.00 | 3.54 | 3.09 |
| Bet365 | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.00 |
| BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| Betano | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.20 |
| Betfair | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.10 |
| Dafabet | 2.02 | 3.60 | 3.25 |
| Marathonbet | 1.98 | 3.54 | 3.02 |
| Pinnacle | 2.07 | 3.74 | 3.21 |
| William Hill | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
11 snapshots recorded, from .