Mutondo Stars
vs
Green Buffaloes
Garuda Lions Prediction: Mutondo Stars
1 – 0 Predicted score · 16% model probability
Mutondo Stars vs Green Buffaloes overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Mutondo Stars vs Green Buffaloes
| Probability | Mutondo Stars | Draw | Green Buffaloes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 40.9% | 34.9% | 24.2% |
| Market | — | — | — |
| Final | 40.9% | 34.9% | 24.2% |
| Edge | — | — | — |
Why Mutondo Stars
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.05 vs 0.75.
Mutondo Stars vs Green Buffaloes match preview
Mutondo Stars are set to face Green Buffaloes in the Zambia Super League on October 15, 2026. According to our model, Mutondo Stars have a 41% probability of winning, while a draw stands at 35% and Green Buffaloes at 24%. The most likely scoreline is 1-0 in favor of Mutondo Stars, with an expected goals tally of 1.05 for them and 0.75 for Green Buffaloes.
In terms of recent form, Mutondo Stars have recorded two losses, one win, one draw, and another loss in their last five matches. Conversely, Green Buffaloes have had a mixed performance with three wins and two losses in their last five games. The head-to-head record shows no wins for either team, with two draws in their last encounters. The confidence grade for this match is C.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Mutondo Stars and Green Buffaloes expected goals
Total expected goals: 1.80
Mutondo Stars and Green Buffaloes attack and defence ratings
Mutondo Stars
Green Buffaloes
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 3 fixtures
- Green Eagles vs Red Arrows
- Mufulira Wanderers v Nkwazi — match page
- NAPSA Stars vs Nkana — team news & stats
- Nchanga Rangers vs Trident
- Konkola Blades v Man Utd Zambia Academy — match page
- Kansanshi Dynamos vs Power Dynamos — team news & stats
- Chirundu Utd vs Kabwe Warriors — team news & stats
- Makeni All Stars vs Zanaco
Before and after this match
Mutondo Stars vs Green Buffaloes markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mutondo Stars | 40.9% | 2.44 | — | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 73.0% | 1.37 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | No | 64.4% | 1.55 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.8% | 1.32 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 59.1% | 1.69 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Mutondo Stars | 40.9% |
| Draw | 34.9% | |
| Green Buffaloes | 24.2% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 27.0% |
| Under 2.5 | 73.0% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 35.6% |
| No | 64.4% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 75.8% |
| 12 (either side) | 65.1% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 59.1% | |
| Handicap -1 | Mutondo Stars win | 17.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 23.9% | |
| Loss | 59.1% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 0-0 | 17.8% |
| 1-0 | 16.1% | |
| 1-1 | 14.3% |
Mutondo Stars vs Green Buffaloes stats
Mutondo Stars and Green Buffaloes recent form
| Mutondo Stars |
LLWDWL |
| Green Buffaloes |
WLLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Mutondo Stars vs Green Buffaloes head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-04-11 | Green Buffaloes | Mutondo Stars | Zambia Super League | 1-1 |
| 2025-11-07 | Mutondo Stars | Green Buffaloes | Zambia Super League | 0-0 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.