Liga Profesional Argentina
·
Full time
·Clausura - 7
Independiente
vs
Gimnasia M.
0 – 3 Full time
| 12′ | Luciano Cingolani | ||
| 38′ | Leonardo Godoy | ||
| 42′ | E. Fernandez | ||
| 53′ | F. Lencioni | ||
| 59′ | M. GutierrezC. Avila | ||
| 59′ | J. PalaisM. Abaldo | ||
| 60′ | F. Lencioni | ||
| 63′ | E. FernandezB. Andrada | ||
| 63′ | L. CingolaniM. Vargas | ||
| 65′ | A. ModicaI. Sabatini | ||
| 77′ | L. GodoyJ. Fedorco | ||
| 77′ | L. MillanM. Meza | ||
| 79′ | F. AntoniniN. Barboza | ||
| 79′ | T. O'ConnorS. Rodriguez | ||
| 87′ | F. ZabalaR. Martino |
Independiente
50%
Draw
28%
Gimnasia M.
22%
Match stats
| 11 | Shots | 11 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Shots on target | 4 |
| 58 | Possession % | 42 |
| 7 | Corners | 4 |
| 7 | Fouls | 15 |
| 5 | Offsides | 1 |
| 1 | Saves | 4 |
| 367 | Accurate passes | 248 |
Independiente vs Gimnasia M. overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Independiente vs Gimnasia M.
| Probability | Independiente | Draw | Gimnasia M. |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 38.2% | 28.8% | 33.1% |
| Market | 54.6% | 27.3% | 18.2% |
| Final | 50.5% | 27.7% | 21.9% |
| Edge | -16.4% | +1.5% | +14.9% |
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
1+ goals
91%
2+ goals
75%
3+ goals
49%
No goals
9%
Independiente and Gimnasia M. expected goals
Independiente
1.36
Gimnasia M.
1.25
Total expected goals: 2.61
Independiente and Gimnasia M. attack and defence ratings
Independiente
Attack
1.09 +9%
Defence
1.09 +9%
Gimnasia M.
Attack
1.31 +31%
Defence
1.10 +10%
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Independiente vs Gimnasia M.: result vs prediction
Independiente 0 – 3 Gimnasia M.
| Market | Outcome |
|---|---|
| 1X2 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| Over/Under 2.5 pick | ✗ Incorrect |
| BTTS pick | ✗ Incorrect |
Other Clausura - 7 fixtures
- Union Santa Fe v Sarmiento Junin — match page
- Boca Juniors vs Lanus — team news & stats
- Deportivo Riestra vs Velez Sarsfield
- Rosario Central v Gimnasia L.P. — match page
- Huracan vs Estudiantes de Rio Cuarto — team news & stats
- Atletico Tucuman vs Belgrano Cordoba
- Talleres Cordoba v Central Cordoba de Santiago — match page
- Banfield vs River Plate — team news & stats
Before and after this match
Independiente vs Gimnasia M. markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Independiente | 50.5% | 1.98 | -16.4% | — |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Under 2.5 | 51.5% | 1.94 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.4% | 1.84 | — | — |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.1% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 61.8% | 1.62 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Independiente | 50.5% |
| Draw | 27.7% | |
| Gimnasia M. | 21.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 48.5% |
| Under 2.5 | 51.5% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 54.4% |
| No | 45.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 78.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 72.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.5% | |
| Handicap -1 | Independiente win | 18.2% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 20.0% | |
| Loss | 61.8% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 1-1 | 13.7% |
| 1-0 | 8.7% | |
| 0-0 | 8.6% |
Independiente vs Gimnasia M. stats
Independiente and Gimnasia M. recent form
| Independiente |
DWLLLW |
| Gimnasia M. |
WWLWLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Independiente and Gimnasia M. going into this match
Independiente record
- They have won 9 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.3 goals per match.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 5 of 24 matches.
- 38% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Gimnasia M. record
- They have won 10 of their 24 league games this season, scoring 1.2 goals per match.
- They average 1.4 goals per game at home against 0.9 on the road.
- They have kept 7 clean sheets in 24 matches.
- They have failed to score in 7 of 24 matches.
- Their longest winning run this season stretches to 3 matches.
- They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).
- 36% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Independiente vs Gimnasia M. head-to-head
Last 2 meetings
1Independiente wins
1Draws
0Gimnasia M. wins
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-02-25 | Gimnasia M. | Independiente | Liga Profesional Argentina | 1-1 |
| 2025-06-29 | Gimnasia M. | Independiente | Copa Argentina | 1-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Independiente vs Gimnasia M. odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 54.6%, draw 27.3%, away 18.2%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10Bet | 1.61 | 3.60 | 5.80 |
| 1xBet | 1.75 | 3.46 | 5.19 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.30 | 5.75 |
| BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.50 | 5.00 |
| Betano | 1.75 | 3.45 | 6.00 |
| Betfair | 1.67 | 3.50 | 5.00 |
| Dafabet | 1.72 | 3.40 | 5.20 |
| Marathonbet | 1.73 | 3.38 | 5.05 |
| Pinnacle | 1.75 | 3.52 | 5.54 |
| SBO | 1.60 | 3.50 | 4.94 |
| Superbet | 1.75 | 3.45 | 5.20 |
| Unibet | 1.63 | 3.60 | 5.60 |
| William Hill | 1.73 | 3.25 | 5.00 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
1
1.73 ▲ +0.15
X
3.46 ▼ -0.27
2
5.20 ▼ -0.85
11 snapshots recorded, from .