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Primera Nacional · Full time ·Matchday 36

Chacarita Juniors vs Nueva Chicago

2 – 0 Full time

51′M. Melendez
52′M. Melendez
53′B. Palazzo
56′N. Pantaleone
59′A. Cuello
61′M. MelendezM. Sanabria
61′E. RoldanD. Barros
61′E. MendezS. Cocimano
61′A. Dominguez
66′F. FacelloM. Leyendeker
72′T. OcampoE. Cardozo
76′A. CuelloD. Duran
76′C. GuancaB. Calderara
76′N. ChavesL. Alfonzo
90′L. AmbrogioA. Gonzalez
90′G. TrindadeM. Rogoski
90′D. Barros
90′R. E. Zalazar

Estadio de Chacarita Juniors, Buenos Aires

Chacarita Juniors 43%
Draw 33%
Nueva Chicago 24%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chacarita Juniors vs Nueva Chicago overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Chacarita Juniors vs Nueva Chicago

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityChacarita JuniorsDrawNueva Chicago
Model53.6%33.8%12.7%
Market39.6%32.5%27.9%
Final43.1%32.8%24.1%
Edge+3.5%+0.3%-3.8%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why Chacarita Juniors

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.17 vs 0.43.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Chacarita Juniors below our published probability: +3.5 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Chacarita Juni ↓ / Nueva Chicago → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 21% 1 23% 2 14% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 79%
2+ goals 49%
3+ goals 22%
No goals 21%

Chacarita Juniors and Nueva Chicago expected goals

Chacarita Juniors 1.17
Nueva Chicago 0.43

Total expected goals: 1.60

Chacarita Juniors and Nueva Chicago attack and defence ratings

Chacarita Juniors

Attack 0.93 -7%
Defence 0.91 -9%

Nueva Chicago

Attack 0.66 -34%
Defence 1.09 +9%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Chacarita Juniors vs Nueva Chicago: result vs prediction

Chacarita Juniors 2 – 0 Nueva Chicago

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 36 fixtures

Primera Nacional

Before and after this match

Chacarita Juniors vs Nueva Chicago markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Chacarita Juniors 43.1% 2.32 +3.5% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 78.3% 1.28 — —
Both teams to score No 74.8% 1.34 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 75.9% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 46.4% 2.16 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Chacarita Juniors43.1%
Draw32.8%
Nueva Chicago24.1%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.521.7%
Under 2.578.3%
Both teams to scoreYes25.2%
No74.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)75.9%
12 (either side)67.2%
X2 (draw or away)56.9%
Handicap -1Chacarita Juniors win24.6%
Push (exactly one goal)29.0%
Loss46.4%
Correct score (top 3)1-022.6%
0-021.2%
2-013.8%

Chacarita Juniors vs Nueva Chicago stats

Chacarita Juniors and Nueva Chicago recent form

newest first
Chacarita Juniors WWLWLW
Nueva Chicago DLLLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Chacarita Juniors and Nueva Chicago going into this match

league record before kick-off

Chacarita Juniors record

  • They have won 11 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 0.8 goals per match.
  • They average 1.1 goals per game at home against 0.5 on the road.
  • They have kept 12 clean sheets in 35 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 16 of 35 matches.
  • 33% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Nueva Chicago record

  • They have won 9 of their 35 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 35 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 18 of 35 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

Chacarita Juniors vs Nueva Chicago head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

2Chacarita Juniors wins 5Draws 3Nueva Chicago wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-06-13Nueva ChicagoChacarita JuniorsPrimera Nacional2-0
2025-06-28Chacarita JuniorsNueva ChicagoPrimera Nacional0-0
2025-02-24Nueva ChicagoChacarita JuniorsPrimera Nacional1-1
2022-04-10Chacarita JuniorsNueva ChicagoPrimera Nacional3-1
2021-08-08Chacarita JuniorsNueva ChicagoPrimera Nacional2-3
2021-03-31Nueva ChicagoChacarita JuniorsPrimera Nacional1-1
2019-03-17Nueva ChicagoChacarita JuniorsPrimera Nacional1-1
2017-07-23Nueva ChicagoChacarita JuniorsPrimera Nacional1-1
2017-03-10Chacarita JuniorsNueva ChicagoPrimera Nacional2-3
2014-04-22Nueva ChicagoChacarita JuniorsPrimera B Metropolitana1-3

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Chacarita Juniors vs Nueva Chicago odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 39.7%, draw 32.4%, away 27.9%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.28 2.77 3.26
Bet365 2.25 2.88 3.25
BetVictor 2.30 2.88 3.40
Betano 2.32 2.90 3.30
Betfair 2.25 2.80 3.25
Dafabet 2.30 2.95 3.35
Marathonbet 2.26 2.77 3.18
Pinnacle 2.34 2.65 3.54
SBO 2.12 2.67 3.07
William Hill 2.38 2.80 3.20

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.30 ▼ -0.11
X 2.80 ▼ -0.11
2 3.26 ▲ +0.26

8 snapshots recorded, from .