Garuda Lions
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Primera Nacional · ·Matchday 35

Nueva Chicago vs San Martin S.J.

Garuda Lions Prediction: Draw

0 – 0 Predicted score · 21% model probability

  • RiskNo edge: the market already prices this, so it is not a value bet.
Bet on this match

Estadio Nueva Chicago, Buenos Aires

Nueva Chicago 33%
Draw 35%
San Martin S.J. 33%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Chance of a draw
35%
most likely outcome
Chance of a goal
79%
at least one goal in the match
Both teams score
32%
goals at both ends
Most likely score with our pick
0 – 0
21% of simulated outcomes

Nueva Chicago vs San Martin S.J. overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Nueva Chicago vs San Martin S.J.

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityNueva ChicagoDrawSan Martin S.J.
Model29.7%37.6%32.8%
Market33.9%33.5%32.7%
Final32.8%34.5%32.7%
Edge-1.1%+1.0%+0.0%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Best available price on the pick: 2.88, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update. Expected return at that price: -0.6% per unit staked (our 34.5% × 2.88 − 1).

Nueva Chicago vs San Martin S.J. match preview

Nueva Chicago faces San Martin S.J. in a Primera Nacional match with both teams showing mixed recent form. Nueva Chicago has recorded three losses in their last five matches, alongside one win and one draw. In contrast, San Martin S.J. has two draws, two losses, and one win in their recent outings. According to our model, the probabilities for this match are 30% for Nueva Chicago to win, 38% for a draw, and 33% for San Martin S.J. to secure the victory.

The expected goals for the match indicate a closely contested affair, with Nueva Chicago at 0.79 and San Martin S.J. at 0.84. The most likely scoreline predicted is 0-0, occurring with a 21% probability. Additionally, there is a 22% chance of over 2.5 goals being scored and a 32% likelihood that both teams will find the net.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Nueva Chicago ↓ / San Martin S.J → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 21% 15% 1 14% 14% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 79%
2+ goals 50%
3+ goals 22%
No goals 21%

Nueva Chicago and San Martin S.J. expected goals

Nueva Chicago 0.79
San Martin S.J. 0.84

Total expected goals: 1.63

Nueva Chicago and San Martin S.J. attack and defence ratings

Nueva Chicago

Attack 0.61 -39%
Defence 1.09 +9%

San Martin S.J.

Attack 1.06 +6%
Defence 1.11 +11%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Other Matchday 35 fixtures

Primera Nacional

Before and after this match

Nueva Chicago vs San Martin S.J. markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Draw 34.5% 2.90 +1.0% 2.88
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 77.7% 1.29 — —
Both teams to score No 67.8% 1.48 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 67.3% 1.49 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 70.3% 1.42 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Nueva Chicago32.8%
Draw34.5%
San Martin S.J.32.7%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.522.3%
Under 2.577.7%
Both teams to scoreYes32.2%
No67.8%
Double chance1X (home or draw)67.3%
12 (either side)65.5%
X2 (draw or away)67.2%
Handicap -1Nueva Chicago win9.8%
Push (exactly one goal)19.8%
Loss70.3%
Correct score (top 3)0-021.0%
0-115.2%
1-114.3%
Compare prices for this pick

Nueva Chicago vs San Martin S.J. stats

Nueva Chicago and San Martin S.J. recent form

newest first
Nueva Chicago LLLWDL
San Martin S.J. DDLLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Nueva Chicago and San Martin S.J. season so far

league record

Nueva Chicago record

  • They have won 9 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 0.7 goals per match.
  • They have kept 11 clean sheets in 34 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 18 of 34 matches.
  • 31% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.

San Martin S.J. record

  • They have won 12 of their 34 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
  • They have kept 10 clean sheets in 34 matches.
  • They have failed to score in 8 of 34 matches.
  • Their longest winning run this season stretches to 4 matches.
  • They have converted 2 of 3 penalties (67%).

Nueva Chicago vs San Martin S.J. head-to-head

Last 9 meetings

1Nueva Chicago wins 3Draws 5San Martin S.J. wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-08-26San Martin S.J.Nueva ChicagoPrimera Nacional1-0
2024-12-01San Martin S.J.Nueva ChicagoPrimera Nacional1-0
2024-11-24Nueva ChicagoSan Martin S.J.Primera Nacional2-1
2023-08-16Nueva ChicagoSan Martin S.J.Primera Nacional0-0
2023-04-06San Martin S.J.Nueva ChicagoPrimera Nacional0-0
2022-05-21San Martin S.J.Nueva ChicagoPrimera Nacional3-1
2020-11-29San Martin S.J.Nueva ChicagoPrimera Nacional1-0
2019-11-16San Martin S.J.Nueva ChicagoPrimera Nacional1-0
2015-07-27Nueva ChicagoSan Martin S.J.Liga Profesional Argentina0-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Nueva Chicago vs San Martin S.J. odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 33.9%, draw 33.5%, away 32.7%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.62 2.73 2.70
Bet365 2.75 2.70 2.80
Betano 2.72 2.82 2.80
Betfair 2.63 2.80 2.80
Dafabet 2.75 2.85 2.85
Marathonbet 2.62 2.73 2.70
Pinnacle 2.74 2.88 2.84
SBO 2.52 2.59 2.56
William Hill 2.70 2.70 2.80
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Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.70 —
X 2.73 —
2 2.80 —

3 snapshots recorded, from .

Prediction snapshot X Draw Predicted score 0 – 0 Low Bet Now
v Bet Now