FC Liefering
vs
Sturm Graz II
Garuda Lions Prediction: FC Liefering
2 – 1 Predicted score · 6% model probability
FC Liefering vs Sturm Graz II overview
Garuda Lions analysis: FC Liefering vs Sturm Graz II
| Probability | FC Liefering | Draw | Sturm Graz II |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 56.5% | 18.3% | 25.2% |
| Market | 44.6% | 22.9% | 32.5% |
| Final | 47.6% | 21.7% | 30.7% |
| Edge | +12.0% | -4.6% | -7.3% |
Why FC Liefering
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.86 vs 1.96.
- The market prices FC Liefering below the model: +12.0 percentage points of edge.
Best available price on the pick: 2.13, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
FC Liefering vs Sturm Graz II match preview
FC Liefering enters this match against Sturm Graz II with a probability of 57% to win, while Sturm Graz II has a 25% chance of victory. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of FC Liefering, with an expected goals tally of 2.86 for FC Liefering and 1.96 for Sturm Graz II. There is a strong likelihood of a high-scoring game, with over 2.5 goals expected at 86% and both teams to score at 81%.
In terms of recent form, FC Liefering has recorded two losses, a win, a draw, and another loss in their last six matches. Sturm Graz II has shown slightly better form with two draws, a win, and two losses, followed by a recent win. Historically, in their last two encounters, FC Liefering has won once and drawn once, while Sturm Graz II has yet to secure a win.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
FC Liefering and Sturm Graz II expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.83
FC Liefering and Sturm Graz II attack and defence ratings
FC Liefering
Sturm Graz II
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 8 fixtures
- SV Kapfenberg vs Austria Vienna (Am) — team news & stats
- SKU Amstetten vs FC BW Linz
- First Vienna v SKN ST. Polten — match page
- Austria Salzburg vs Floridsdorfer AC
- Rapid Wien II v Wacker Innsbruck — match page
- WSPG Wels vs Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz — team news & stats
- Admira Wacker v Voitsberg — match page
Before and after this match
FC Liefering vs Sturm Graz II markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Liefering | 47.6% | 2.10 | +12.0% | 2.13 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85.9% | 1.16 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 81.4% | 1.23 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 78.3% | 1.28 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 43.6% | 2.30 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | FC Liefering | 47.6% |
| Draw | 21.7% | |
| Sturm Graz II | 30.7% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 85.9% |
| Under 2.5 | 14.1% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 81.4% |
| No | 18.6% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 69.3% |
| 12 (either side) | 78.3% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 52.4% | |
| Handicap -1 | FC Liefering win | 38.3% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 18.1% | |
| Loss | 43.6% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 6.5% |
| 2-2 | 6.3% | |
| 3-1 | 6.2% |
FC Liefering vs Sturm Graz II stats
FC Liefering and Sturm Graz II recent form
| FC Liefering |
LLWWDL |
| Sturm Graz II |
DDWLLW |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
FC Liefering and Sturm Graz II season so far
FC Liefering record
- They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.
Sturm Graz II record
- They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.
FC Liefering vs Sturm Graz II head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-10 | Sturm Graz II | FC Liefering | 2. Liga | 0-1 |
| 2025-08-15 | FC Liefering | Sturm Graz II | 2. Liga | 2-2 |
| 2025-03-14 | Sturm Graz II | FC Liefering | 2. Liga | 1-0 |
| 2024-08-30 | FC Liefering | Sturm Graz II | 2. Liga | 2-2 |
| 2024-05-03 | FC Liefering | Sturm Graz II | 2. Liga | 4-1 |
| 2023-10-21 | Sturm Graz II | FC Liefering | 2. Liga | 1-1 |
| 2023-05-26 | Sturm Graz II | FC Liefering | 2. Liga | 4-2 |
| 2022-08-26 | FC Liefering | Sturm Graz II | 2. Liga | 4-2 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
FC Liefering vs Sturm Graz II odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 44.6%, draw 22.9%, away 32.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 2.06 | 4.05 | 2.88 |
| Bet365 | 2.05 | 4.10 | 2.80 |
| BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.90 | 2.88 |
| Betano | 2.07 | 4.10 | 2.82 |
| Betfair | 2.05 | 4.00 | 2.75 |
| Dafabet | 2.13 | 3.95 | 2.85 |
| Marathonbet | 2.08 | 4.00 | 2.81 |
| Pinnacle | 2.13 | 4.11 | 2.83 |
| SBO | 1.93 | 3.65 | 2.78 |
| William Hill | 2.05 | 3.75 | 2.75 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .