Garuda Lions
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2. Liga · Full time ·Matchday 8

FC Liefering vs Sturm Graz II

3 – 1 Full time

2′O. Adejenughure
40′L. Traore
42′T. Gurmann
54′O. Adejenughure
63′F. MatijasevicYuri Leles
63′I. IvanschitzJ. Moser
65′T. GurmannJ. Petritsch
67′Yuri Leles
70′O. AdejenughureR. Kosakiewic
70′J. PokornyI. Onwuzulike
76′J. LockerJ. Wolf
77′M. GrgicJ. Ploner
85′M. MatjasecD. Grudzinskas
90′FC Liefering

Red Bull Arena, SalzburgReferee: S. Bosnjak

FC Liefering 47%
Draw 22%
Sturm Graz II 31%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

FC Liefering vs Sturm Graz II overview

Garuda Lions analysis: FC Liefering vs Sturm Graz II

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityFC LieferingDrawSturm Graz II
Model56.6%18.2%25.2%
Market43.4%23.0%33.6%
Final46.7%21.8%31.5%
Edge+3.3%-1.2%-2.1%

Confidence: Low · Edge = Final minus Market

Why FC Liefering

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.87 vs 1.96.
  • The market prices FC Liefering below our published probability: +3.3 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

FC Liefering ↓ / Sturm Graz II → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 5% 2 6% 6% 3 6% 6% 4+ 5% 9% 9% 6%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 99%
2+ goals 96%
3+ goals 86%
No goals 1%

FC Liefering and Sturm Graz II expected goals

FC Liefering 2.87
Sturm Graz II 1.96

Total expected goals: 4.82

FC Liefering and Sturm Graz II attack and defence ratings

FC Liefering

Attack 1.31 +31%
Defence 1.27 +27%

Sturm Graz II

Attack 1.19 +19%
Defence 1.45 +45%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

FC Liefering vs Sturm Graz II: result vs prediction

FC Liefering 3 – 1 Sturm Graz II

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 8 fixtures

2. Liga

Before and after this match

FC Liefering vs Sturm Graz II markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 FC Liefering 46.7% 2.14 +3.3% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 86.0% 1.16 — —
Both teams to score Yes 81.4% 1.23 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 78.2% 1.28 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 43.4% 2.30 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2FC Liefering46.7%
Draw21.8%
Sturm Graz II31.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.586.0%
Under 2.514.0%
Both teams to scoreYes81.4%
No18.6%
Double chance1X (home or draw)68.5%
12 (either side)78.2%
X2 (draw or away)53.3%
Handicap -1FC Liefering win38.5%
Push (exactly one goal)18.2%
Loss43.4%
Correct score (top 3)2-16.5%
2-26.3%
3-16.2%

FC Liefering vs Sturm Graz II stats

FC Liefering and Sturm Graz II recent form

newest first
FC Liefering LLWWDL
Sturm Graz II DDWLLW

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

FC Liefering and Sturm Graz II going into this match

league record before kick-off

FC Liefering record

  • They have won 3 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
  • They average 2.2 goals per game on the road against 1.7 at home.

Sturm Graz II record

  • They have won 2 of their 7 league games this season, scoring 2.1 goals per match.
  • They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.3 on the road.

FC Liefering vs Sturm Graz II head-to-head

Last 8 meetings

3FC Liefering wins 3Draws 2Sturm Graz II wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-03-10Sturm Graz IIFC Liefering2. Liga0-1
2025-08-15FC LieferingSturm Graz II2. Liga2-2
2025-03-14Sturm Graz IIFC Liefering2. Liga1-0
2024-08-30FC LieferingSturm Graz II2. Liga2-2
2024-05-03FC LieferingSturm Graz II2. Liga4-1
2023-10-21Sturm Graz IIFC Liefering2. Liga1-1
2023-05-26Sturm Graz IIFC Liefering2. Liga4-2
2022-08-26FC LieferingSturm Graz II2. Liga4-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

FC Liefering vs Sturm Graz II odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 43.4%, draw 23.0%, away 33.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
1xBet 2.14 4.05 2.75
Bet365 2.15 3.90 2.70
BetVictor 2.10 4.00 2.75
Betano 2.12 3.90 2.85
Betfair 2.05 4.00 2.70
Dafabet 2.16 4.00 2.80
Marathonbet 2.12 4.05 2.73
Pinnacle 2.19 4.23 2.80
SBO 2.08 3.72 2.64
William Hill 2.10 3.80 2.70

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.12 ▲ +0.09
X 4.00 —
2 2.74 ▼ -0.18

13 snapshots recorded, from .