Sturm Graz II
vs
SV Kapfenberg
Garuda Lions Prediction: Sturm Graz II
2 – 1 Predicted score · 8% model probability
Sturm Graz II vs SV Kapfenberg overview
Garuda Lions analysis: Sturm Graz II vs SV Kapfenberg
| Probability | Sturm Graz II | Draw | SV Kapfenberg |
|---|---|---|---|
| Model | 50.1% | 21.3% | 28.5% |
| Market | 50.1% | 23.5% | 26.4% |
| Final | 50.1% | 23.0% | 26.9% |
| Edge | +0.0% | -2.2% | +2.2% |
Why Sturm Graz II
- Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.30 vs 1.73.
Best available price on the pick: 1.89, recorded — the top price across the books in the table below, each at its own last update.
Sturm Graz II vs SV Kapfenberg match preview
Sturm Graz II faces SV Kapfenberg in a matchup where the home side has a 50% probability of winning according to our model, while the visitors have a 27% chance. The most likely scoreline is projected to be 2-1 in favor of Sturm Graz II, with an 8% likelihood. Both teams are expected to contribute to the score, with a 74% chance of both teams scoring and a 76% probability of over 2.5 goals in the match.
Recent form shows Sturm Graz II with a record of L-D-D-W-L-L, while SV Kapfenberg has struggled, recording L-L-L-L-W-L. In their last two encounters, SV Kapfenberg has secured two wins against Sturm Graz II, indicating a historical advantage. The expected goals for Sturm Graz II stand at 2.30, while SV Kapfenberg is projected at 1.71.
Scoreline probability
Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.
Goal probability
Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.
Sturm Graz II and SV Kapfenberg expected goals
Total expected goals: 4.03
Sturm Graz II and SV Kapfenberg attack and defence ratings
Sturm Graz II
SV Kapfenberg
Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.
Other Matchday 9 fixtures
Before and after this match
Sturm Graz II vs SV Kapfenberg markets
Best value
| Market | Model pick | Probability | Fair odds | Edge | Best price |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sturm Graz II | 50.1% | 2.00 | +0.0% | 1.89 |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.6% | 1.31 | — | — |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.7% | 1.34 | — | — |
| Double chance | 12 (either side) | 77.0% | 1.30 | — | — |
| Handicap -1 | Loss | 49.9% | 2.01 | — | — |
Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.
All probabilities
| Market | Selection | Probability |
|---|---|---|
| 1X2 | Sturm Graz II | 50.1% |
| Draw | 23.0% | |
| SV Kapfenberg | 26.9% | |
| Over/Under 2.5 | Over 2.5 | 76.6% |
| Under 2.5 | 23.4% | |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 74.7% |
| No | 25.3% | |
| Double chance | 1X (home or draw) | 73.1% |
| 12 (either side) | 77.0% | |
| X2 (draw or away) | 49.9% | |
| Handicap -1 | Sturm Graz II win | 31.0% |
| Push (exactly one goal) | 19.1% | |
| Loss | 49.9% | |
| Correct score (top 3) | 2-1 | 8.1% |
| 1-1 | 7.8% | |
| 2-2 | 7.0% |
Sturm Graz II vs SV Kapfenberg stats
Sturm Graz II and SV Kapfenberg recent form
| Sturm Graz II |
LDDWLL |
| SV Kapfenberg |
LLLLWL |
W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.
Sturm Graz II and SV Kapfenberg season so far
Sturm Graz II record
- They have won 2 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 2.0 goals per match.
- They average 2.8 goals per game at home against 1.2 on the road.
SV Kapfenberg record
- They have won 1 of their 8 league games this season, scoring 1.1 goals per match.
- They have failed to score in 4 of 8 matches.
- 32% of their yellow cards have come after the 75th minute.
Sturm Graz II vs SV Kapfenberg head-to-head
Last 8 meetings
| Date | Home | Away | Competition | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-03-01 | SV Kapfenberg | Sturm Graz II | 2. Liga | 2-1 |
| 2025-08-23 | Sturm Graz II | SV Kapfenberg | 2. Liga | 1-2 |
| 2025-03-01 | SV Kapfenberg | Sturm Graz II | 2. Liga | 1-1 |
| 2024-08-17 | Sturm Graz II | SV Kapfenberg | 2. Liga | 1-2 |
| 2024-03-16 | SV Kapfenberg | Sturm Graz II | 2. Liga | 1-1 |
| 2023-08-27 | Sturm Graz II | SV Kapfenberg | 2. Liga | 3-3 |
| 2023-03-17 | SV Kapfenberg | Sturm Graz II | 2. Liga | 3-1 |
| 2022-10-30 | Sturm Graz II | SV Kapfenberg | 2. Liga | 0-1 |
League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.
Sturm Graz II vs SV Kapfenberg odds
Odds comparison
Median de-vigged market: home 49.9%, draw 23.7%, away 26.5%.
| Bookmaker | 1 | X | 2 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet | 1.85 | 3.94 | 3.49 |
| Bet365 | 1.75 | 3.90 | 3.60 |
| BetVictor | 1.83 | 3.90 | 3.50 |
| Betano | 1.85 | 3.90 | 3.50 |
| Betfair | 1.80 | 4.00 | 3.40 |
| Dafabet | 1.89 | 3.90 | 3.40 |
| Marathonbet | 1.83 | 3.94 | 3.48 |
| Pinnacle | 1.87 | 4.06 | 3.61 |
| SBO | 1.85 | 3.46 | 3.12 |
| William Hill | 1.85 | 3.60 | 3.40 |
Odds movement
Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.
12 snapshots recorded, from .