Garuda Lions
Today
Jupiler Pro League · Full time ·Matchday 3

Charleroi vs KV Mechelen

2 – 0 Full time

Stade du Pays de Charleroi, CharleroiReferee: Jan Boterberg, Belgium

Charleroi 60%
Draw 23%
KV Mechelen 17%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Charleroi vs KV Mechelen overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Charleroi vs KV Mechelen

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCharleroiDrawKV Mechelen
Model70.3%19.3%10.4%
Market56.1%24.3%19.5%
Final59.7%23.1%17.2%
Edge+14.2%-5.0%-9.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Charleroi

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.32 vs 0.69.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 0 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Charleroi below the model: +14.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Charleroi ↓ / KV Mechelen → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 11% 9% 2 13% 9% 3 10% 7% 4+ 10% 7%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 94%
2+ goals 81%
3+ goals 58%
No goals 6%

Charleroi and KV Mechelen expected goals

Charleroi 2.32
KV Mechelen 0.69

Total expected goals: 3.02

Charleroi and KV Mechelen attack and defence ratings

Charleroi

Attack 0.99 -1%
Defence 0.65 -35%

KV Mechelen

Attack 0.85 -15%
Defence 1.61 +61%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Charleroi vs KV Mechelen: result vs prediction

Charleroi 2 – 0 KV Mechelen

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Jupiler Pro League

Before and after this match

Charleroi vs KV Mechelen markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Charleroi 59.7% 1.68 +14.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 58.5% 1.71 — —
Both teams to score No 50.9% 1.96 — —
Double chance 1X (home or draw) 82.8% 1.21 — —
Handicap -1 Charleroi win 50.7% 1.97 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Charleroi59.7%
Draw23.1%
KV Mechelen17.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.558.5%
Under 2.541.5%
Both teams to scoreYes49.1%
No50.9%
Double chance1X (home or draw)82.8%
12 (either side)76.9%
X2 (draw or away)40.3%
Handicap -1Charleroi win50.7%
Push (exactly one goal)22.6%
Loss26.7%
Correct score (top 3)2-012.3%
1-010.0%
2-19.5%

Charleroi vs KV Mechelen stats

Charleroi and KV Mechelen recent form

newest first
Charleroi WWWDLW
KV Mechelen DLLDDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Charleroi and KV Mechelen going into this match

league record before kick-off

KV Mechelen record

  • They have won 0 of their 5 league games this season, scoring 1.0 goals per match.
  • They have failed to score in 3 of 5 matches.

Charleroi vs KV Mechelen head-to-head

Last 3 meetings

1Charleroi wins 0Draws 2KV Mechelen wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2025-12-07KV MechelenCharleroiJupiler Pro League1-0
2025-12-04CharleroiKV MechelenBelgium Cup2-0
2025-09-28CharleroiKV MechelenJupiler Pro League0-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Charleroi vs KV Mechelen odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 55.7%, draw 24.6%, away 19.6%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 1.77 3.65 4.33
1xBet 1.70 3.94 4.86
888Sport 1.67 3.70 4.60
Bet365 1.62 3.75 5.00
BetVictor 1.65 3.90 4.80
Betano 1.70 3.90 4.90
Betfair 1.65 3.75 4.40
Dafabet 1.69 3.90 4.90
Marathonbet 1.66 3.85 4.75
Pinnacle 1.69 4.05 5.04
SBO 1.65 3.60 4.48
Superbet 1.69 3.90 4.90
Unibet 1.71 3.70 4.50
William Hill 1.67 3.70 4.60

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 1.67 ▼ -0.08
X 3.85 ▲ +0.10
2 4.80 ▲ +0.30

2 snapshots recorded, from .