Garuda Lions
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Jupiler Pro League · Full time ·Matchday 3

Lommel United vs KVC Westerlo

4 – 0 Full time

Soevereinstadion, LommelReferee: Bert Verbeke, Netherlands

Lommel United 42%
Draw 25%
KVC Westerlo 33%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Lommel United vs KVC Westerlo overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Lommel United vs KVC Westerlo

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityLommel UnitedDrawKVC Westerlo
Model68.0%19.1%12.9%
Market33.2%27.3%39.5%
Final41.9%25.3%32.9%
Edge+34.8%-8.2%-26.7%

Confidence: Low

Why Lommel United

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 2.40 vs 0.98.
  • Better recent form: 3 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Lommel United below the model: +34.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Lommel United ↓ / KVC Westerlo → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 1 7% 9% 2 10% 10% 3 8% 8% 4+ 8% 8%

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 96%
2+ goals 86%
3+ goals 66%
No goals 4%

Lommel United and KVC Westerlo expected goals

Lommel United 2.40
KVC Westerlo 0.98

Total expected goals: 3.38

Lommel United and KVC Westerlo attack and defence ratings

Lommel United

Attack 1.12 +12%
Defence 0.83 -17%

KVC Westerlo

Attack 0.93 -7%
Defence 1.46 +46%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Lommel United vs KVC Westerlo: result vs prediction

Lommel United 4 – 0 KVC Westerlo

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 3 fixtures

Jupiler Pro League

Before and after this match

Lommel United vs KVC Westerlo markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Lommel United 41.9% 2.39 +34.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 65.7% 1.52 — —
Both teams to score Yes 57.6% 1.73 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 74.7% 1.34 — —
Handicap -1 Lommel United win 46.4% 2.15 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Lommel United41.9%
Draw25.3%
KVC Westerlo32.9%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.565.7%
Under 2.534.3%
Both teams to scoreYes57.6%
No42.4%
Double chance1X (home or draw)67.1%
12 (either side)74.7%
X2 (draw or away)58.1%
Handicap -1Lommel United win46.4%
Push (exactly one goal)21.6%
Loss32.0%
Correct score (top 3)2-09.8%
2-19.6%
1-18.8%

Lommel United vs KVC Westerlo stats

Lommel United and KVC Westerlo recent form

newest first
Lommel United LDDWWW
KVC Westerlo LLLLWL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Lommel United vs KVC Westerlo head-to-head

No recent meetings on record

Our head-to-head history covers these clubs' top-flight matches from 2014 onwards — these two simply haven't crossed paths in that window (newly promoted sides and cross-division pairings are the usual reason). The prediction doesn't rely on H2H: it is built from each team's current expected-goals ratings.

Lommel United vs KVC Westerlo odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 33.4%, draw 27.2%, away 39.4%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.55 3.50 2.55
1xBet 2.85 3.56 2.40
888Sport 2.80 3.30 2.30
Bet365 2.75 3.40 2.25
BetVictor 2.80 3.60 2.30
Betano 2.90 3.40 2.42
Betfair 2.70 3.30 2.30
Dafabet 2.85 3.55 2.41
Marathonbet 2.79 3.48 2.35
Pinnacle 2.91 3.61 2.42
SBO 2.72 3.36 2.25
Superbet 2.85 3.50 2.42
Unibet 2.70 3.40 2.50
William Hill 2.80 3.30 2.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.80 ▲ +0.23
X 3.40 —
2 2.35 ▼ -0.20

3 snapshots recorded, from .