Garuda Lions
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Jupiler Pro League · Full time ·Matchday 4

Kortrijk vs Charleroi

1 – 3 Full time

Guldensporen Stadion, KortrijkReferee: Wesli De Cremer, Belgium

Kortrijk 24%
Draw 27%
Charleroi 48%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Kortrijk vs Charleroi overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Kortrijk vs Charleroi

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityKortrijkDrawCharleroi
Model19.3%28.9%51.8%
Market26.1%26.9%47.0%
Final24.4%27.4%48.2%
Edge-6.8%+2.0%+4.8%

Confidence: Low

Why Charleroi

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.47 vs 0.81.
  • Better recent form: 4 wins in the last 6 vs 2 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Charleroi below the model: +4.8 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Kortrijk ↓ / Charleroi → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 11% 14% 11% 1 7% 13% 9% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 89%
2+ goals 68%
3+ goals 40%
No goals 11%

Kortrijk and Charleroi expected goals

Kortrijk 0.81
Charleroi 1.47

Total expected goals: 2.28

Kortrijk and Charleroi attack and defence ratings

Kortrijk

Attack 0.94 -6%
Defence 1.15 +15%

Charleroi

Attack 1.02 +2%
Defence 0.58 -42%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Kortrijk vs Charleroi: result vs prediction

Kortrijk 1 – 3 Charleroi

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✗ Incorrect

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Jupiler Pro League

Before and after this match

Kortrijk vs Charleroi markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Charleroi 48.2% 2.07 +4.8% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 60.1% 1.66 — —
Both teams to score No 56.1% 1.78 — —
Double chance X2 (draw or away) 75.6% 1.32 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 48.4% 2.06 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Kortrijk24.4%
Draw27.4%
Charleroi48.2%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.539.9%
Under 2.560.1%
Both teams to scoreYes43.9%
No56.1%
Double chance1X (home or draw)51.8%
12 (either side)72.6%
X2 (draw or away)75.6%
Handicap -1Charleroi win26.8%
Push (exactly one goal)24.7%
Loss48.4%
Correct score (top 3)0-113.8%
1-113.4%
0-011.4%

Kortrijk vs Charleroi stats

Kortrijk and Charleroi recent form

newest first
Kortrijk LLWLWL
Charleroi WWWWDL

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Kortrijk vs Charleroi head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

1Kortrijk wins 3Draws 6Charleroi wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2024-12-26KortrijkCharleroiJupiler Pro League0-1
2024-08-25CharleroiKortrijkJupiler Pro League1-0
2024-05-11CharleroiKortrijkJupiler Pro League3-1
2024-04-14KortrijkCharleroiJupiler Pro League1-2
2024-02-03KortrijkCharleroiJupiler Pro League1-0
2023-09-23CharleroiKortrijkJupiler Pro League1-0
2023-03-04KortrijkCharleroiJupiler Pro League0-1
2022-10-18CharleroiKortrijkJupiler Pro League2-2
2022-01-25CharleroiKortrijkJupiler Pro League1-1
2021-10-02KortrijkCharleroiJupiler Pro League2-2

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Kortrijk vs Charleroi odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 26.1%, draw 26.9%, away 47.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 3.65 3.50 1.95
1xBet 3.64 3.52 2.05
Bet365 3.70 3.40 1.90
BetVictor 3.40 3.40 2.00
Betano 3.75 3.45 2.02
Betfair 3.50 3.50 1.90
Dafabet 3.60 3.55 2.04
Marathonbet 3.55 3.44 2.00
Pinnacle 3.63 3.53 2.03
SBO 3.11 3.07 1.99
Superbet 3.60 3.55 2.05
Unibet 3.80 3.55 1.91
William Hill 3.50 3.30 2.00

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.60 ▼ -0.40
X 3.50 ▼ -0.10
2 2.00 ▲ +0.08

7 snapshots recorded, from .