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Jupiler Pro League · Full time ·Matchday 5

Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise

2 – 3 Full time

7′Ondrej Kricfalusi
9′Mardochée Nzita
12′Mohamed Koné
27′Freddy Mbemba
41′Patrick Pflücke
44′Adem Zorgane
45′Louis Patris
49′Kamiel Van De Perre
64′Freddy MbembaAntoine Colassin
64′Amine BoukamirTriston Rowe
72′Raul FloruczDarius Olaru
72′Louis PatrisDenzel De Roeve
72′Patrick PflückeAdama Bojang
80′Mateo BiondicIlan Hurtevent
80′Besfort ZeneliNikki Havenaar
84′Adem ZorganeRob Schoofs
86′Mardochée NzitaGaku Nawata

Stade du Pays de Charleroi, CharleroiReferee: Nicolas Laforge, Belgium

Charleroi 32%
Draw 27%
Union St. Gilloise 40%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

Match stats

20 Shots 17
5 Shots on target 7
60 Possession % 40
5 Corners 7
12 Fouls 17
1 Offsides 1
5 Saves 3
391 Accurate passes 254

Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise overview

Garuda Lions analysis: Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityCharleroiDrawUnion St. Gilloise
Model43.3%28.5%28.2%
Market28.2%27.2%44.6%
Final32.0%27.5%40.5%
Edge+15.1%+1.3%-16.4%

Confidence: Low

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

Charleroi ↓ / Union St. Gill → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 9% 7% 1 10% 14% 7% 2 8% 9% 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 91%
2+ goals 74%
3+ goals 48%
No goals 9%

Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise expected goals

Charleroi 1.46
Union St. Gilloise 1.14

Total expected goals: 2.59

Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise attack and defence ratings

Charleroi

Attack 1.15 +15%
Defence 0.58 -42%

Union St. Gilloise

Attack 1.54 +54%
Defence 0.86 -14%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise: result vs prediction

Charleroi 2 – 3 Union St. Gilloise

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✗ Incorrect
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 5 fixtures

Jupiler Pro League

Before and after this match

Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Union St. Gilloise 40.5% 2.47 -16.4% —
Over/Under 2.5 Under 2.5 52.0% 1.92 — —
Both teams to score Yes 53.3% 1.88 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 72.5% 1.38 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 71.8% 1.39 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2Charleroi32.0%
Draw27.5%
Union St. Gilloise40.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.548.0%
Under 2.552.0%
Both teams to scoreYes53.3%
No46.7%
Double chance1X (home or draw)59.5%
12 (either side)72.5%
X2 (draw or away)68.0%
Handicap -1Union St. Gilloise win11.7%
Push (exactly one goal)16.5%
Loss71.8%
Correct score (top 3)1-113.6%
1-09.7%
2-19.0%

Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise stats

Charleroi and Union St. Gilloise recent form

newest first
Charleroi WWWWWD
Union St. Gilloise WWDLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise head-to-head

Last 10 meetings

0Charleroi wins 2Draws 8Union St. Gilloise wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-02-11Union St. GilloiseCharleroiBelgium Cup4-1
2026-02-04CharleroiUnion St. GilloiseBelgium Cup0-0
2025-12-14CharleroiUnion St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League1-1
2025-10-18Union St. GilloiseCharleroiJupiler Pro League3-1
2025-01-11CharleroiUnion St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League1-2
2024-08-16Union St. GilloiseCharleroiJupiler Pro League1-0
2023-12-10CharleroiUnion St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League1-3
2023-10-01Union St. GilloiseCharleroiJupiler Pro League3-1
2023-01-28CharleroiUnion St. GilloiseJupiler Pro League0-1
2022-07-29Union St. GilloiseCharleroiJupiler Pro League1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

Charleroi vs Union St. Gilloise odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 28.4%, draw 27.6%, away 44.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 3.10 3.40 2.20
1xBet 3.38 3.54 2.13
Bet365 3.20 3.30 2.05
BetVictor 3.30 3.40 2.10
Betano 3.30 3.45 2.18
Betfair 3.30 3.40 2.00
Dafabet 3.30 3.45 2.19
Marathonbet 3.30 3.46 2.08
Pinnacle 3.43 3.66 2.13
SBO 2.87 2.93 2.16
Superbet 3.30 3.45 2.20
Unibet 3.25 3.35 2.15
William Hill 3.20 3.30 2.05

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 3.30 ▼ -0.80
X 3.43 ▼ -0.22
2 2.09 ▲ +0.21

9 snapshots recorded, from .