Garuda Lions
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Jupiler Pro League · Full time ·Matchday 4

OH Leuven vs Standard Liege

1 – 2 Full time

The King Power AT Den Dreef Stadium, HeverleeReferee: Kevin van Damme, Belgium

OH Leuven 29%
Draw 27%
Standard Liege 45%

Confidence: Low  ·  blended with market odds

OH Leuven vs Standard Liege overview

Garuda Lions analysis: OH Leuven vs Standard Liege

model vs market on the 1X2
ProbabilityOH LeuvenDrawStandard Liege
Model17.9%24.0%58.2%
Market32.5%27.5%40.0%
Final28.8%26.6%44.5%
Edge-14.6%-3.6%+18.2%

Confidence: Low

Why Standard Liege

  • Higher expected-goals rate in this fixture: 1.91 vs 0.99.
  • Better recent form: 2 wins in the last 6 vs 1 for the opposition.
  • The market prices Standard Liege below the model: +18.2 percentage points of edge.

Scoreline probability

model grid

Every scoreline the model gives this fixture, 0 to 4+ goals a side. Darker means likelier.

OH Leuven ↓ / Standard Liege → 0 1 2 3 4+ 0 7% 10% 10% 6% 1 11% 10% 6% 2 3 4+

Goal probability

Chance of the match reaching each goal total, from the same grid.

1+ goals 93%
2+ goals 80%
3+ goals 55%
No goals 7%

OH Leuven and Standard Liege expected goals

OH Leuven 0.99
Standard Liege 1.91

Total expected goals: 2.90

OH Leuven and Standard Liege attack and defence ratings

OH Leuven

Attack 0.72 -28%
Defence 1.26 +26%

Standard Liege

Attack 1.21 +21%
Defence 0.92 -8%

Attack is goals scored relative to the league average (1.00); defence is goals conceded relative to that average, so a lower defence number is better. Green means better than the league, amber worse.

OH Leuven vs Standard Liege: result vs prediction

OH Leuven 1 – 2 Standard Liege

MarketOutcome
1X2 pick✓ Correct
Over/Under 2.5 pick✓ Correct
BTTS pick✓ Correct

Other Matchday 4 fixtures

Jupiler Pro League

Before and after this match

OH Leuven vs Standard Liege markets

Best value

the model's strongest selection per market
MarketModel pickProbabilityFair oddsEdgeBest price
1X2 Standard Liege 44.5% 2.25 +18.2% —
Over/Under 2.5 Over 2.5 55.5% 1.80 — —
Both teams to score Yes 54.5% 1.83 — —
Double chance 12 (either side) 73.4% 1.36 — —
Handicap -1 Loss 42.0% 2.38 — —

Fair odds = 1 / probability, the break-even price implied by the model. Best price is the top bookmaker quote on the 1X2 pick.

All probabilities

all probabilities from one model grid
MarketSelectionProbability
1X2OH Leuven28.8%
Draw26.6%
Standard Liege44.5%
Over/Under 2.5Over 2.555.5%
Under 2.544.5%
Both teams to scoreYes54.5%
No45.5%
Double chance1X (home or draw)55.5%
12 (either side)73.4%
X2 (draw or away)71.2%
Handicap -1Standard Liege win34.9%
Push (exactly one goal)23.1%
Loss42.0%
Correct score (top 3)1-111.4%
0-210.1%
1-29.9%

OH Leuven vs Standard Liege stats

OH Leuven and Standard Liege recent form

newest first
OH Leuven LLLDWL
Standard Liege WDDLWD

W = win, D = draw, L = loss, in each team's last 6 completed matches.

OH Leuven vs Standard Liege head-to-head

Last 4 meetings

2OH Leuven wins 0Draws 2Standard Liege wins
DateHomeAwayCompetitionScore
2026-05-08Standard LiegeOH LeuvenJupiler Pro League2-1
2026-04-04OH LeuvenStandard LiegeJupiler Pro League1-3
2025-12-12Standard LiegeOH LeuvenJupiler Pro League0-1
2025-08-31OH LeuvenStandard LiegeJupiler Pro League1-0

League and cup meetings from our records and provider history.

OH Leuven vs Standard Liege odds

Odds comparison

latest snapshot per book

Median de-vigged market: home 32.5%, draw 27.5%, away 40.0%.

Bookmaker1X2
10Bet 2.75 3.40 2.45
1xBet 2.91 3.50 2.40
Bet365 2.88 3.20 2.30
BetVictor 2.80 3.40 2.30
Betano 2.92 3.40 2.40
Betfair 2.80 3.30 2.20
Dafabet 2.95 3.50 2.37
Marathonbet 2.84 3.42 2.34
Pinnacle 2.89 3.48 2.40
SBO 2.65 3.08 2.23
Superbet 2.92 3.45 2.37
Unibet 2.90 3.35 2.33
William Hill 2.80 3.25 2.30

Odds movement

Median book price at each recorded snapshot, oldest to latest.

1 2.88 ▼ -0.02
X 3.40 —
2 2.34 ▲ +0.04

11 snapshots recorded, from .